market_pulse — FRED DGS10 last print is 2026-09-24 at 5.18 and VIXCLS is 2026-09-22 at 14.21. Cockpit uses Monday ^TNX 5.24 and ^VIX 16.07. DGS3 4.94, DGS30 FRED 5.49, DFF 3.88 and HY OAS 2.93 are dated 2026-09-25.
market_pulse — SPX index analytics snapshot is dated 2026-09-25 (close 7,704.13). Monday's cash close was 7,683.69, 1.6% under the 7,810.01 high. Breadth figures are Friday's snapshot, not Monday's.
market_pulse — GC=F latest aggregator bar is 2026-09-29 at 4,173.20, -0.67% on that bar. Monday GLD was -3.94% to 377.91 and a futures writeup put December gold at 4,155.40, -3.84%. Pulse gold uses the web Monday futures print.
yesterday_retrospective — /movers?index=SPX returned a 2026-09-25 cache whose loser rows were close 0 and -100%. Movers omitted. ^STOXX price call returned no close; Europe uses DAX, CAC and FTSE.
forex_rebalancing — Squawk routes returned 401 (account key required). Same-day FX rhetoric is from central-bank and wire copy, not the squawk feed.
us_equity_ideas — /fundamentals/NVDA derived ratios are from a 2020-08-19 filing. They were not used. /news/NVDA did not surface the 28 Sep buyback authorization.
eu_equity_ideas — Screener category=eu ran (27 names, dated 2026-09-25) but none had a company-specific catalyst inside 48 hours that cleared the bar. Published zero ideas.
penny_plays — Screener category=penny returned no run. Fell back to web search. One watchlist name only; nothing scored 6/10.
trend_follow — QQQ history returned 17 sessions, so SMA50 and SMA200 were not computed and QQQ was not ranked.
risk_cover_playbook — Equity put/call ratio was not on a priced aggregator endpoint this run. That internals row is omitted.
portfolio_reality_check — Portfolio Manager marked live quotes price_estimated on Euro, Penny, Anti-Fragile, Trend, Commodities and Crypto. Tech US quotes were live. XLK's stored average (669) is not a plausible unadjusted cost versus a 194.53 close and was not used as a stop.
October FOMC hike re-prices and sticks (funds ≥4.00–4.25%)
Probability: High • Impact: High
Portfolio Snapshot
All Portfolios, Combined: $102381.13
Blended P&L: +2.38% • 30d Hit Rate: +32.10%
1 of 7 books, weighted by capital invested. Estimated quotes, and books whose path statistics disagree with dollar P&L, are left out. Hit rate is 35 of 79 reviewed picks still on track. Average gain 15.8%, average loss -8.4%.
GeneralMarket Pulse 3 minMonday's 10-year finished at 5.24% and VIX at 16.07, up 8% on the day, while SPY lagged RSP by 0.5pp. Weekly DTWEXBGS is unchanged at 118.21 from 11 Sep, so the dollar tile is not a same-da…
MARKET PULSE
Tightening Book Risk-On 4/4 clear
AIMonday's 10-year finished at 5.24% and VIX at 16.07, up 8% on the day, while SPY lagged RSP by 0.5pp. Weekly DTWEXBGS is unchanged at 118.21 from 11 Sep, so the dollar tile is not a same-day print.
Indexes
S&P 500 Data
7,683.69
yday 7,743.41
▼ -0.77%
NASDAQ Data
26,820.38
yday 27,068.72
▼ -0.92%
Dow Jones Data
51,481.51
yday 51,828.62
▼ -0.67%
Russell 2K Data
2,817.91
yday 2,837.55
▼ -0.69%
Commodities
Metals
Gold Data
4,155.40
yday 4,201.30
▼ -3.84%
Energy
Oil (WTI) Data
93.84
yday 93.40
▲ +0.47%
Crypto
Bitcoin Data
83,837.00
yday 83,132.00
▲ +0.85%
Ether Data
2,693.21
yday 2,646.51
▲ +1.76%
Rates
10Y Yield Data
5.24
yday 5.18
▲ +1.08%
UST 10y Data
5.24
yday 5.18
+6bp
UST 30y Data
5.55
yday 5.47
+6bp
Fed funds effective Data
3.88
yday 3.88
unch
Credit
HY OAS Data
2.93
yday 2.80
+13bp
IG OAS Data
0.81 percent
yday 0.79 percent
calm
HY minus IG OAS Data
2.12 percent
watch
Volatility
VIX Data
16.07
yday 15.99
+1.20
VIX9D/VIX Data
0.90 ratio
calm
VIX/VIX3M Data
0.88 ratio
calm
MOVE index Data
101.82 index
watch
Dollar & FX
EUR/USD Data
1.14
yday 1.14
▼ -0.27%
Broad USD (DTWEXBGS) Data
118.21
yday 118.21
+0.13
wk
Dollar index 5-session change Data
1.05 percent
watch
Breadth
SPY−RSP 5d Data
+3.04pp
yday +3.04pp
—
SPY−RSP 21d Data
+5.15pp
yday +5.15pp
—
% from 52w Data
-1.36%
yday -1.36%
—
Stock-bond 20d correlation (SPY vs TLT) Data
0.42 ratio
yday 0.44 ratio
stress
S&P 500 share above the 200-day Data
59.13 percent
watch
Liquidity
SOFR minus effective fed funds Data
0.02 percent
yday 0.00 percentage points
calm
Initial claims, 4-week average Data
202,250.00 persons
calm
Cross-asset
Average pairwise 11-sector correlation, 20d Data
0.11 ratio
calm
Gold/copper ratio, 20-session change Data
-5.87 percent
watch
Other
UST 3y Data
4.94
yday 4.99
-5bp
Cover checks
VIX Data
16.07 / 25.00
yday 15.99
Not Triggered
10Y-2Y spread Data
0.36 / -0.20
yday 0.36 / -0.20
Not Triggered
HY OAS Data
2.93 / 5.00
yday 2.80
Not Triggered
SPX drawdown from ATH Data
-1.62 / -10.00
yday -0.85 / -10.00
Not Triggered
Anti-Fragile book (Dalio / Gave) Inflationary boom
AIOil is bid and the 10-year is at 5.24%, while claims are flat near 197k and HY OAS is 2.93%, so this is still an inflationary boom rather than a bust. Copper's Monday dip does not overturn that: CPER remains above its 50-day. Long duration stays at a zero weight until that mix br
• Cut high-beta tech first if two hard triggers fire.
• Move 10 points of Anti-Fragile cash into SH. Do not buy TLT in this inflationary quadrant.
AIZero of four hard triggers are fired, so the regime stays risk-on even though the tape archetype is tightening. One internal is stress: the 20-session stock-bond correlation is positive at 0.42, so bonds are not hedging equities. HY OAS at 2.93 and VIX at 16 are not the crash.
GeneralYesterday's Market Retrospective 1 minMonday's S&P 500 fell 0.77% to 7,683.69 because Trump rejected Iran's Hormuz offer, crude jumped, and the 10-year closed at 5.24%.
YESTERDAY'S MARKET RETROSPECTIVE
Monday's S&P 500 fell 0.77% to 7,683.69 because Trump rejected Iran's Hormuz offer, crude jumped, and the 10-year closed at 5.24%.
Bridge to Today
Tuesday's Nikkei is already down 1.6%, so today's JOLTS print is the first check on whether Monday's yield squeeze extends.
GeneralConcept of the Day 1 minWhat the VIX actually measures
CONCEPT OF THE DAY
What the VIX actually measures
Why today : Pulse VIX is 16.07 after an 8% Monday rise — still well under the 25 cover trigger, which is the price of insurance, not an all-clear.
The VIX is the options market's price for 30-day S&P 500 insurance, quoted as an annualized volatility. A print of 16 means dealers are charging for roughly a 16% annualized move, not that stocks are 'calm' in some mood sense. It is implied volatility, so it can rise because traders buy protection even when the index itself is only slightly red. Term structure matters more than the spot print: when 9-day and 30-day vol sit below 3-month vol, the curve is in contango and the market is not pricing an active shock. The cover playbook's hard line is 25. Use a sub-25 print as 'insurance is still cheap,' and use a jump toward 25, or spot vol rising above 3-month vol, as the moment that cheapness is gone.
Over the next few weeks the extra $150B buyback, taking remaining capacity to $235B through FY2028, should support NVDA even if the OpenAI pause keeps the rest of the chip group heavy.
Buyback +$150BDirector sale 18 SepReddit rank 3
Fundamentals
6/10
Sentiment / flow
4/10
Catalyst
9/10
Narrative
6/10
Technicals
6/10
Board authorized an extra $150B repurchase on 28 Sep, remaining capacity $235B through FY2028Shares closed +1.7% at $228.86 on a day XLK fell 0.9%Reuters cited about $22.4B of cash at the July quarter
Invalidation: A close under $220, or a cut to the FY2028 growth guide.
TradingView's price for NVDA. It is not the last print in this letter.
Desk research framework — not a recommendation to buy or sell.
StocksEU Equity Ideas 1 min
EU EQUITY IDEAS
Looked. Nothing priced.
Desk research framework — not a recommendation to buy or sell.
StocksPenny Plays 1 minLXRX WATCH
PENNY PLAYS
Ticker
Name
Conviction
1d
LXRXNEW
Lexicon Pharmaceuticals
5
+5.85%
LXRXPENNYWATCHNEW
Lexicon Pharmaceuticals • Health Care
5/10Conviction
$1.90
▲ +5.85%
Scores 5/10: narrative 2/2, but the SONATA readout is Q1 2027 (catalyst 1/2) and the balance sheet is only 1/2. Watchlist, not a buy.
Current ratio 4.9, but operating margin isNo Reddit mentions; last insider buys wereInitiation is today; the trial readout is HCM sotagliflozin story maps to a real carClosed $1.90, +5.9% Monday, not a 30% chas
Fundamentals
5/10
Sentiment / flow
0/10
Catalyst
5/10
Narrative
10/10
Technicals
5/10
Cantor Fitzgerald initiated Overweight with an $8 target on 28 SepSONATA-HCM Phase 3 is fully enrolled; data expected Q1 2027
Target
$3.10
Invalidation: SONATA-HCM slips past Q1 2027 or a raise prices under $1.50.
LXRX between stop and target1.9
1.23.1
Stop on the left, target on the right. Red and green mark those ends only. The tick is the last price.
TradingView's price for LXRX. It is not the last print in this letter.
Most sub-$5 names that look cheap stay cheap or go to zero. This screen is diligence, not a buy list.
Desk research framework — not a recommendation to buy or sell.
StocksTrend Follow 5 minNo fresh buy today. XLK, SMH and XLV still clear both averages with positive relative strength, but they are already in the book. XBI and XLB closed under their 50-day and come off if held.
TREND FOLLOW
No fresh buy today. XLK, SMH and XLV still clear both averages with positive relative strength, but they are already in the book. XBI and XLB closed under their 50-day and come off if held.
5 of 17 scored universe names closed above their 50-day. QQQ had only 17 sessions of history, so it was not scored.
Ticker
Name
Conviction
1d
XLK
Technology Select Sector SPDR
6.3
-0.89%
SMH
VanEck Semiconductor ETF
6
-1.08%
XLV
Health Care Select Sector SPDR
5
+0.33%
XLE
Energy Select Sector SPDR
5.5
+0.10%
XBI
SPDR S&P Biotech ETF
3
+1.02%
XLB
Materials Select Sector SPDR
3
-0.66%
XLKTECHNOLOGYHOLD🔥 2-issue streak
Technology Select Sector SPDR
6.3/10Conviction
$194.53
▼ -0.89%
Stay long the tech sleeve while XLK holds the 50-day near $184; this is not a new add, the book already owns it.
Rules-based momentum sleeve — factor not sRules-based momentum sleeve — factor not sNVDA buyback helps; the OpenAI pause is thLeadership is real, and already widely ownPrice above a rising 50-day and 200-day; R
Fundamentals
—
Sentiment / flow
—
Catalyst
6/10
Narrative
5/10
Technicals
8/10
NVDA's $150B buyback landed inside the sleeve on 28 Sep20-day relative strength versus SPY is +4.8pp
Invalidation: Daily close back through the 50-day near $183.73.
TradingView's price for XLK. It is not the last print in this letter.
Hold the semiconductor trend while SMH stays above its 50-day; relative strength is positive but no longer a fresh entry.
Rules-based momentum sleeve — factor not sRules-based momentum sleeve — factor not sThe trend is the catalyst; Micron's print Rules-based momentum sleeve — factor not sAbove 50-day and 200-day; 20-day RS versus
Fundamentals
—
Sentiment / flow
—
Catalyst
5/10
Narrative
—
Technicals
7/10
Still above the 50-day after Monday's chip splitMicron reports 30 Sep and can gap the sleeve
Invalidation: Daily close back through the 50-day near $570.
TradingView's price for SMH. It is not the last print in this letter.
Keep the health-care hold. It is the non-tech name still above its 50-day, with only modest relative strength.
Rules-based momentum sleeve — factor not sRules-based momentum sleeve — factor not sMonday's defensive bid is the whole catalyRules-based momentum sleeve — factor not sAbove both averages, but RS versus SPY is
Fundamentals
—
Sentiment / flow
—
Catalyst
4/10
Narrative
—
Technicals
6/10
XLV rose 0.33% Monday while the S&P fell 0.77%20-day RS versus SPY is only +0.9pp
Invalidation: Daily close back through the 50-day near $166.
TradingView's price for XLV. It is not the last print in this letter.
XLE is still above its 50-day, but 20-day strength versus SPY has turned negative, so this is a hold rather than an add.
Rules-based momentum sleeve — factor not sRules-based momentum sleeve — factor not sHormuz keeps a bid under the sleeve this wRules-based momentum sleeve — factor not sAbove 50-day and 200-day, but 20-day RS is
Fundamentals
—
Sentiment / flow
—
Catalyst
6/10
Narrative
—
Technicals
5/10
Hormuz rejection kept the sleeve green Monday, +0.1%RS versus SPY over 20 sessions is -2.4pp
Invalidation: Daily close back through the 50-day near $60.
TradingView's price for XLE. It is not the last print in this letter.
Exit biotech. XBI closed under its 50-day, and the trend rule does not wait for a deeper drawdown.
Rules-based momentum sleeve — factor not sRules-based momentum sleeve — factor not sNo fresh biotech catalyst used for this exRules-based momentum sleeve — factor not sClose is under the 50-day. The exit rule i
Fundamentals
—
Sentiment / flow
—
Catalyst
—
Narrative
—
Technicals
3/10
Monday close 156.61 versus a 50-day near 157.45
Invalidation: Already met: close is through the 50-day.
TradingView's price for XBI. It is not the last print in this letter.
XLBMATERIALSEXIT🔥 44-issue streak
Materials Select Sector SPDR
3/10Conviction
$49.47
▼ -0.66%
Exit materials. XLB is 4% under its 50-day and losing to SPY over 20 sessions.
Rules-based momentum sleeve — factor not sRules-based momentum sleeve — factor not sExit is the moving-average rule, not a heaRules-based momentum sleeve — factor not sFour percent under the 50-day and RS is -4
Fundamentals
—
Sentiment / flow
—
Catalyst
—
Narrative
—
Technicals
3/10
Close 49.47 versus a 50-day near 51.5320-day RS versus SPY is -4.4pp
Invalidation: Already met: close is through the 50-day.
TradingView's price for XLB. It is not the last print in this letter.
Desk research framework — not a recommendation to buy or sell.
CryptoCryptocurrency Landscape 2 minSpot Bitcoin ETFs added $31M on 28 Sep, an eighth inflow day, after a $2.39B week through 25 Sep. Ether ETFs added $17.1M the same day. Both are holds: the flow is real, and the five-day pr…
CRYPTOCURRENCY LANDSCAPE
Spot Bitcoin ETFs added $31M on 28 Sep, an eighth inflow day, after a $2.39B week through 25 Sep. Ether ETFs added $17.1M the same day. Both are holds: the flow is real, and the five-day price path is still down.
Ticker
Name
Conviction
1d
BTC-USD
Bitcoin
6.5
+0.85%
ETH-USD
Ether
6
+1.76%
BTC-USDHOLD🔥 28-issue streak
Bitcoin
6.5/10Conviction
$83837.00
▲ +0.85%
Into the next week, ETF inflows can keep a floor under bitcoin, but the five-day price is still down about 3%, so this stays a hold.
No issuer cash-flow statement for bitcoin.Eighth inflow day; week through 25 Sep wasMonday's $31M day is a slowdown from the pRegulated demand is ahead of the spot pricUp 0.9% on the day and down about 3% over
Fundamentals
—
Sentiment / flow
8/10
Catalyst
6/10
Narrative
7/10
Technicals
5/10
28 Sep net ETF inflow $31.07M, eighth positive dayWeek through 25 Sep drew $2.39B, the largest since October 2025
Invalidation: A daily close under $80,000 that breaks the inflow streak.
TradingView's price for BTC-USD. It is not the last print in this letter.
Ether's next tell is whether the seven-day ETF inflow streak survives a quieter tape. The $17M Monday print is support, not a new chase.
No issuer cash-flow statement for ether.Seventh inflow day, but Monday was only $1The flow streak is the catalyst; the dailyETH is following bitcoin's ETF bid, not leUp 1.8% on the day and still down over fiv
Fundamentals
—
Sentiment / flow
7/10
Catalyst
6/10
Narrative
6/10
Technicals
5/10
Ether ETFs added $17.1M on 28 Sep, seventh inflow dayETHA alone was $15.4M of the Monday total
Invalidation: A daily close under $2,500 coinciding with ETF outflows.
TradingView's price for ETH-USD. It is not the last print in this letter.
Desk research framework — not a recommendation to buy or sell.
General
GeneralCommodities Outlook 2 minStay with USO, do not add: Monday's Hormuz rejection left WTI bid, but the 5-day USO path is still -7%. Gold is a watch at the $4,115 test, not a buy, because real yields did the damage.
COMMODITIES OUTLOOK
Stay with USO, do not add: Monday's Hormuz rejection left WTI bid, but the 5-day USO path is still -7%. Gold is a watch at the $4,115 test, not a buy, because real yields did the damage.
Oil up and gold down is an inflation-and-real-rate mix, not a classic war bid. If that split holds into Wednesday's PCE print, duration and bullion stay…
Ticker
Name
Conviction
1d
USO
WTI crude (USO)
7.3
+1.13%
GLD
Gold (GLD)
5.8
-3.94%
WTI crude (USO)ENERGYHOLD🔥 11-issue streak
USO
7.3/10Conviction
$150.01
▲ +1.13%
Over the next week USO can stay bid while Hormuz is shut, but talks resume this week so this is a hold, not a chase after a -7% five-day swing.
Hormuz still shut; flows depend on costly No positioning or inventory series priced Weekend rejection kept crude bid into TuesOil is the channel from Hormuz into the OcMonday +1.1% but the five-day USO move is
Fundamentals
8/10
Sentiment / flow
—
Catalyst
9/10
Narrative
7/10
Technicals
5/10
Trump rejected Iran's Hormuz proposal over the weekend; crude jumped MondayTuesday morning WTI was still near $93.50 and Brent near $107Kpler estimated 12.8mb/d Hormuz flows, but via costly ship-to-ship workarounds
Invalidation: A sustained WTI close back under $90 on a reopening deal.
TradingView's price for USO. It is not the last print in this letter.
Next sessions gold trades the $4,115 spot test. A Hormuz-talks headline that drops crude is the bullish flip; the hike path is the bear case.
Real yields at 2.85% raise the carry cost No COT or ETF-flow series priced for gold.The catalyst is the yield path, not a goldIn this tape, Gulf peace would help gold mMonday -3.9%; price is below its 50-day ne
Fundamentals
7/10
Sentiment / flow
—
Catalyst
6/10
Narrative
7/10
Technicals
3/10
GLD fell 3.94% Monday to 377.91 as the 10-year closed at 5.24%Forex.com put US 10-year real yields at 2.85%, the highest since 2008CME FedWatch priced a 70.9% chance of an October hike
Invalidation: Spot gold reclaims $4,220 as real yields fall.
TradingView's price for GLD. It is not the last print in this letter.
StocksPortfolio Reality Check 8 min30d hit rate 32%
PORTFOLIO REALITY CHECK
P&L Across Portfolios
Tech US
+2.38%
Named holdings. 142 smaller positions (31.68%) are off this picture.
Tech US
Performance
Equity vs SPY
Drawdown
Total Value
$102381.13
Cash
$11265.28
P&L
$2381.13 (+2.38%)
Realized P&L
$-3513.78
TWR
+1.45%
Sharpe
0.10
Max DD
-2.39%
Sortino
0.26
Calmar
3.18
Ann. return
+7.59%
Beta vs SPY
N/A
Allocation
Positions89%
Cash11%
Today's Moves
No new activity today — no open thesis needed adjusting.
Current Holdings
Position
Value
Unrealized P&L
TSM ×20.93
$9479.73
+11.2%
XOM ×129
$20936.14
+6.3%
UNH ×8.49
$3208.76
-11.3%
INTC ×14.08
$1633.78
-73.6%
MSFT ×11.91
$6066.08
+25.1%
AMZN ×5.95
$1465.26
-8.9%
CVX ×7.29
$1504.83
+3.8%
FRO ×38.46
$1849.90
+19.0%
+52 more holdings
Track Record
26 On Track · 19 Lagging · 15 Stopped Out
Position
Conviction Then
Return Since
Verdict
TSM (2026-07-19)
7/10
+11.2%
On Track
XOM (2026-07-19)
8/10
+6.3%
On Track
UNH (2026-07-19)
6.5/10
-11.3%
Stopped Out
INTC (2026-07-24)
7.5/10
-73.6%
Stopped Out
MSFT (2026-07-28)
6.5/10
+25.1%
On Track
AMZN (2026-07-31)
8/10
-8.9%
Stopped Out
CVX (2026-08-01)
7/10
+3.8%
On Track
FRO (2026-08-02)
7/10
+19.0%
On Track
PLTR (2026-08-03)
6.5/10
+0.5%
On Track
MRVL (2026-08-05)
7/10
+148.4%
On Track
LLY (2026-08-06)
8/10
+0.7%
On Track
ELF (2026-08-06)
6.5/10
+17.9%
On Track
ABNB (2026-08-07)
7.5/10
-4.9%
Lagging
TWLO (2026-08-07)
7/10
+48.5%
On Track
BRK-B (2026-08-10)
7.5/10
-3.6%
Lagging
CSCO (2026-08-10)
7/10
-11.9%
Stopped Out
MU (2026-08-13)
7.5/10
+12.2%
On Track
RDDT (2026-08-15)
8/10
-17.5%
Stopped Out
HD (2026-08-17)
7.5/10
-14.3%
Stopped Out
VLO (2026-08-18)
7/10
+10.9%
On Track
TGT (2026-08-20)
7.5/10
-1.4%
Lagging
MRK (2026-08-20)
7/10
-2.3%
Lagging
ADI (2026-08-21)
8/10
+6.8%
On Track
ROST (2026-08-21)
7/10
+1.4%
On Track
AVGO (2026-08-22)
7/10
-5.1%
Lagging
NVDA (2026-08-06)
7.5/10
+5.9%
On Track
AMD (2026-08-03)
7/10
+29.4%
On Track
OI (2026-08-24)
7/10
-19.5%
Stopped Out
V (2026-08-25)
7/10
-3.8%
Lagging
CRWD (2026-08-27)
8/10
+24.0%
On Track
CRM (2026-08-28)
8/10
-9.8%
Stopped Out
ESTC (2026-08-29)
8/10
-12.0%
Stopped Out
GAP (2026-08-30)
7/10
-2.3%
Lagging
SHEL (2026-08-30)
6.5/10
+6.1%
On Track
NAT (2026-08-31)
7/10
+15.1%
On Track
SLB (2026-09-01)
7/10
-14.3%
Stopped Out
DELL (2026-09-03)
7.5/10
+8.8%
On Track
HAL (2026-09-03)
6.5/10
-13.8%
Stopped Out
HOOD (2026-09-04)
7/10
-6.6%
Lagging
RTX (2026-09-05)
7.5/10
-6.5%
Lagging
APH (2026-09-05)
7.5/10
+2.2%
On Track
DUOL (2026-09-06)
7.5/10
-13.1%
Stopped Out
FIVE (2026-09-06)
7.5/10
-9.6%
Stopped Out
PSX (2026-09-07)
7/10
-0.6%
Lagging
ADBE (2026-09-07)
6.5/10
-13.3%
Stopped Out
JPM (2026-09-08)
6.5/10
-6.2%
Lagging
ORCL (2026-09-11)
7.2/10
-18.4%
Stopped Out
LHX (2026-09-15)
6/10
-3.2%
Lagging
IREN (2026-09-16)
6/10
+0.3%
On Track
LITE (2026-09-17)
7/10
+0.2%
On Track
HAE (2026-09-18)
6.8/10
-1.7%
Lagging
JBHT (2026-09-18)
6.5/10
-4.5%
Lagging
LRCX (2026-09-19)
7.4/10
+9.2%
On Track
COIN (2026-09-19)
7.4/10
-1.3%
Lagging
ACN (2026-09-20)
7/10
-3.8%
Lagging
TLN (2026-09-20)
6.8/10
+3.8%
On Track
SNPS (2026-09-26)
7/10
-1.9%
Lagging
JCI (2026-09-26)
7/10
-0.9%
Lagging
SNX (2026-09-28)
7.3/10
-0.5%
Lagging
TFX (2026-09-28)
6.3/10
+2.3%
On Track
Euro Only
Performance
Equity vs SPY
Drawdown
Total Value
$121086.29
Cash
$14987.73
P&L
$21086.29 (+21.09%)
Realized P&L
$-42835.98
Path statistics are hidden. The quotes are estimated, or the time-weighted return disagrees with dollar P&L.
Today's Moves
No new activity today — no open thesis needed adjusting.
Current Holdings
⚠ Portfolio Manager marked every position price_estimated. Where this run had an aggregator close, that close is shown and the flag stays true.
Position
Value
Unrealized P&L
ASML.AS ×0.4702
$23967.39
—
TTE.PA ×368
$27276.04
—
UNA.AS ×48.5
$2832.95
—
RR.L ×101
$1460.08
—
VIE.PA ×48.5
$1430.88
—
GLE.PA ×22.15
$1755.04
—
MNDI.L ×158
$1402.26
—
NWG.L ×191
$1346.17
—
+47 more holdings
Penny Plays
Performance
Equity vs SPY
Drawdown
Total Value
$95417.43
Cash
$81164.16
P&L
$-4582.57 (-4.58%)
Realized P&L
$-4582.57
Path statistics are hidden. The quotes are estimated, or the time-weighted return disagrees with dollar P&L.
Today's Moves
No new activity today — no open thesis needed adjusting.
Current Holdings
⚠ Portfolio Manager marked every position price_estimated. Where this run had an aggregator close, that close is shown and the flag stays true.
Position
Value
Unrealized P&L
GOSS ×18578
$3755.55
—
PYPD ×1564
$6940.50
—
STXS ×2738
$3557.21
—
Anti-Fragile
Performance
Equity vs SPY
Drawdown
Total Value
$100000.00
Cash
$35000.00
P&L
$0.0000 (+0.00%)
Realized P&L
$0.0000
Path statistics are hidden. The quotes are estimated, or the time-weighted return disagrees with dollar P&L.
Today's Moves
No new activity today — no open thesis needed adjusting.
Current Holdings
⚠ Portfolio Manager marked every position price_estimated. Where this run had an aggregator close, that close is shown and the flag stays true.
Position
Value
Unrealized P&L
GLD ×61.65
$25000.00
-6.8%
IEF ×108
$10000.00
-3.6%
DBC ×654
$20000.00
+6.3%
SPLV ×132
$10000.00
-6.1%
Track Record
1 On Track · 3 Lagging
Position
Conviction Then
Return Since
Verdict
GLD (2026-08-18)
6/10
-6.8%
Lagging
IEF (2026-08-18)
6/10
-3.6%
Lagging
DBC (2026-08-18)
6/10
+6.3%
On Track
SPLV (2026-08-18)
6/10
-6.1%
Lagging
Trend Follow
Performance
Equity vs SPY
Drawdown
Total Value
$105095.32
Cash
$73446.40
P&L
$5095.32 (+5.10%)
Realized P&L
$-381.62
Path statistics are hidden. The quotes are estimated, or the time-weighted return disagrees with dollar P&L.
Today's Moves
No new activity today — no open thesis needed adjusting.
Current Holdings
⚠ Portfolio Manager marked every position price_estimated. Where this run had an aggregator close, that close is shown and the flag stays true.
Position
Value
Unrealized P&L
XLE ×87.86
$5539.52
-1.5%
XLK ×11.57
$7748.48
—
SMH ×5.03
$2990.61
+1.0%
XLV ×30.27
$5207.77
-0.5%
XBI ×32
$5207.77
-3.8%
XLB ×93.53
$4954.78
-6.6%
Track Record
1 On Track · 4 Lagging
Position
Conviction Then
Return Since
Verdict
XLE (2026-08-18)
6/10
-1.5%
Lagging
SMH (2026-08-18)
6/10
+1.0%
On Track
XLV (2026-08-18)
6/10
-0.5%
Lagging
XBI (2026-08-18)
6/10
-3.8%
Lagging
XLB (2026-08-18)
6/10
-6.6%
Lagging
Commodities
Performance
Equity vs SPY
Drawdown
Total Value
$100000.00
Cash
$26717.65
P&L
$0.0000 (+0.00%)
Realized P&L
$0.0000
Path statistics are hidden. The quotes are estimated, or the time-weighted return disagrees with dollar P&L.
Today's Moves
No new activity today — no open thesis needed adjusting.
Current Holdings
⚠ Portfolio Manager marked every position price_estimated. Where this run had an aggregator close, that close is shown and the flag stays true.
Position
Value
Unrealized P&L
USO ×206
$26795.83
+15.4%
GLD ×30.1
$11738.20
-3.1%
CPER ×150
$5929.12
+0.7%
SLV ×93.58
$5545.24
-7.3%
PPLT ×66.63
$1111.38
-6.7%
BNO ×35.14
$1850.57
+14.6%
URA ×23.16
$1066.93
—
UGA ×26.78
$3377.87
—
+11 more holdings
Track Record
3 On Track · 3 Lagging
Position
Conviction Then
Return Since
Verdict
USO (2026-08-18)
6/10
+15.4%
On Track
GLD (2026-08-18)
6/10
-3.1%
Lagging
CPER (2026-08-18)
6/10
+0.7%
On Track
SLV (2026-08-18)
6/10
-7.3%
Lagging
PPLT (2026-08-18)
6/10
-6.7%
Lagging
BNO (2026-08-18)
6/10
+14.6%
On Track
Crypto
Performance
Equity vs SPY
Drawdown
Total Value
$100000.00
Cash
$32370.73
P&L
$0.0000 (+0.00%)
Realized P&L
$0.0000
Path statistics are hidden. The quotes are estimated, or the time-weighted return disagrees with dollar P&L.
Today's Moves
No new activity today — no open thesis needed adjusting.
Current Holdings
⚠ Portfolio Manager marked every position price_estimated. Where this run had an aggregator close, that close is shown and the flag stays true.
Position
Value
Unrealized P&L
BTC-USD ×0.5510
$35015.45
+31.9%
ETH-USD ×14.91
$28949.67
+38.7%
SOL-USD ×26.81
$2795.91
+14.1%
XRP-USD ×628
$868.24
+9.3%
Track Record
4 On Track
Position
Conviction Then
Return Since
Verdict
BTC-USD (2026-08-18)
6/10
+31.9%
On Track
ETH-USD (2026-08-18)
6/10
+38.7%
On Track
SOL-USD (2026-08-18)
6/10
+14.1%
On Track
XRP-USD (2026-08-18)
6/10
+9.3%
On Track
30-day hit rate across all portfolios : +32.10%
Glossary
backwardation
A term structure where nearer maturities cost more than later ones, often a stress signal for VIX.
basis point
One hundredth of a percentage point (0.01%).
yield curve
Yields of government bonds across maturities; an inverted curve (short above long) has often preceded slowdowns.
conviction
The desk’s 0-10 score for how strongly the evidence supports an idea; not a probability.
contango
A term structure where later maturities cost more than nearer ones.
drawdown
Peak-to-trough decline of a price or portfolio.
breadth
How many stocks participate in a market move (for example % above their 200-day average).
Sharpe
Excess return per unit of volatility; higher is better.
2s10s
The 10-year yield minus the 2-year yield, a common curve-shape gauge.
beta
Sensitivity of a stock to market moves; 1.0 moves with the market.
VIX
CBOE Volatility Index: the options market’s price for 30-day S&P 500 volatility; higher means more expected turbulence.
RSI
Relative Strength Index: a 0-100 momentum gauge; above 70 is often read as overbought, below 30 as oversold.
P/E
Price-to-earnings ratio: share price divided by earnings per share.
OAS
Option-adjusted spread: the extra yield of a bond over a risk-free benchmark, adjusted for embedded options.
RRG
Relative Rotation Graph: plots relative strength and its momentum to show leaders and laggards.
ATH
All-time high.
TWR
Time-weighted return: performance that removes the effect of cash flows in and out.
Legal & risk disclosures
General research disclaimer: this newsletter is a desk research framework compiled from third-party market data, filings and news. It may contain errors, omissions or delays, and past performance does not predict future results. Figures labelled illustrative (for example fan charts) are model outputs, not forecasts.
Penny-stock risk: very low-priced, thinly traded securities can be illiquid, volatile and easy to manipulate. Spreads can be wide, exits may be impossible at the quoted price, and you can lose your entire investment. Ideas in this category are diligence starting points, not a buy list.
Not investment advice: nothing here is a personalised recommendation, an offer or a solicitation to buy or sell any security, currency, commodity or crypto-asset. It does not take into account your objectives, financial situation or risk tolerance. Consider seeking independent professional advice.
Jurisdiction: this content is not directed at any person or entity in a place where its distribution would be unlawful or require registration. Availability of the instruments mentioned varies by country; you are responsible for complying with the rules that apply to you.