market_pulse — The cockpit tape and index analytics are as of 2026-10-02 (analytics close 7666.45 versus the tape's 7722.72). Monday cash closes live on the index band. VIX and the Europe indices had null closes and were left off; NG=F was a stale unchanged print and was left off too.
yesterday_retrospective — GET /movers?index=SPX is dated 2026-09-30 and includes broken -100% rows, so the movers table was omitted.
forex_rebalancing — Squawk-alert feed returned HTTP 401, so same-day FX intervention checks fell back to the jobs coverage already cited.
penny_plays — Screener returned an empty universe for category=penny, so the section fell back to a web pass and published zero names.
eu_equity_ideas — Schneider's all-cash PTC bid is the live European headline, but the acquirer is funding it with new equity, so no EU long cleared a buy.
us_equity_ideas — The aggregator news feed for MSFT did not surface the Oct 5 Melius upgrade; the upgrade is cited from the wire, not from that feed.
trend_follow — QQQ history came back with 19 non-null sessions, so the 200-day test failed closed and QQQ was not scored.
commodities_outlook — Brent's aggregator print is still the 2026-10-02 close of 102.25. A Monday wire settle was lower but within 2%, so the aggregator price was kept and the call is WATCH.
crypto_landscape — Spot-ETF flow trackers disagreed on sign and size for Oct 5, so the ETF-flow row was omitted rather than picking one figure.
portfolio_reality_check — Euro, penny, anti-fragile, trend, commodities and crypto positions all came back price_estimated. Path statistics are passed through from the API and can disagree with the dollar P&L.
catalyst_calendar — The aggregator week calendar returned no economic events and no earnings source, so dated items come only from the Fed and BLS pages already cited.
October FOMC hike re-prices and sticks (funds ≥4.00–4.25%)
Probability: Medium • Impact: High
Portfolio Snapshot
All Portfolios, Combined: $104873.15
Blended P&L: +4.87% • 30d Hit Rate: +50.00%
1 of 7 books, weighted by capital invested. Estimated quotes, and books whose path statistics disagree with dollar P&L, are left out. Hit rate is 30 of 59 reviewed picks still on track. Average gain 21.7%, average loss -7.7%.
GeneralMarket Pulse 8 minThe 10-year is 5.24 after a 5bp decline and HY OAS is 324bp, 12bp wider, while VIX is 15.31. The S&P print on this tape is still 7722.72 from Oct 2.
MARKET PULSE
Monday's cash close leaves the S&P at 7773.95, up 0.66%, and the Nasdaq at 27477.31, up 1.05%. The next test is whether that earnings bid survives September CPI.
Mixed tape constructive +1 Book Risk-On 4/4 clear
AIThe 10-year is 5.24 after a 5bp decline and HY OAS is 324bp, 12bp wider, while VIX is 15.31. The S&P print on this tape is still 7722.72 from Oct 2.
Indexes
S&P 500 Data
7,773.95
yday 7,722.72
▲ +0.66%
NASDAQ Data
27,477.31
yday 27,190.86
▲ +1.05%
Nasdaq 100 Data
31,076.44
yday 30,807.93
▲ +0.87%
Dow Jones Data
51,267.90
yday 51,176.96
▲ +0.18%
Russell 2K Data
2,847.14
yday 2,832.90
▲ +0.50%
Euro Stoxx 50 Data
6,238.50
yday 6,238.50
▲ +0.16%
DAX Data
25,231.20
yday 25,231.20
▲ +0.38%
CAC 40 Data
7,897.19
yday 7,897.19
▲ +0.13%
FTSE 100 Data
10,462.00
yday 10,462.00
▼ -0.16%
Nikkei 225 Data
70,683.98
yday 69,946.86
▲ +1.05%
Hang Seng Data
24,230.50
yday 23,984.28
▲ +1.03%
Commodities
Metals
Gold Data
4,181.80
yday 4,181.80
▲ +0.47%
Silver Data
60.97
yday 60.42
▲ +0.92%
Copper Data
6.55
yday 6.55
▼ -1.32%
Energy
Oil (WTI) Data
91.11
yday 91.11
▲ +0.59%
Brent Data
102.25
yday 102.25
▲ +1.42%
Crypto
Bitcoin Data
85,228.00
yday 86,234.00
▼ -1.17%
Ether Data
2,697.17
yday 2,724.67
▼ -1.01%
Solana Data
119.44
yday 121.56
▼ -1.74%
Rates
US 2Y Data
4.78
yday 4.78
-10bp
US 10Y Data
5.24
yday 5.24
-5bp
US 30Y Data
5.61
yday 5.61
-3bp
2s10s spread Data
46.00
yday 46.00
+5bp
10Y-3M spread Data
109.00
yday 109.00
+2bp
Credit
US HY OAS Data
324.00
yday 324.00
+12bp
Baa-10Y spread Data
149.00
yday 149.00
+2bp
IG OAS Data
86.00 bp
yday 86.00 bp
calm
HY minus IG spread Data
238.00 bp
yday 238.00 bp
watch
Volatility
VIX Data
15.31
yday 15.31
-1.19 (-7.2%)
VIX9D/VIX Data
0.93 ratio
yday 0.93 ratio
calm
VIX/VIX3M Data
0.83 ratio
yday 0.83 ratio
calm
Dollar & FX
US Dollar Index (DXY) Data
101.28
yday 101.28
+0.09 (+0.1%)
Breadth
% > 50d Data
45.4%
yday 45.4%
—
% > 200d Data
60.1%
yday 60.1%
—
Adv / Dec Data
207 / 216
yday 207 / 216
—
New hi / lo Data
33 / 19
yday 33 / 19
—
SPY−RSP 1d Data
0.0pp
yday 0.0pp
—
% from 52w Data
-1.84%
yday -1.84%
—
Stock-bond 20d correlation (SPY vs TLT) Data
0.55 ratio
yday 0.39 ratio
stress
S&P 500 share above the 200-day Data
60.10 %
yday 60.10 %
watch
Liquidity
SOFR minus fed funds Data
-1.00 bp
yday -1.00 bp
calm
Initial claims Data
197,000.00 persons
yday 197,000.00 persons
calm
Cross-asset
Average pairwise sector correlation Data
0.12 ratio
yday 0.10 ratio
calm
Cover checks
VIX Data
15.31 / 25.00
yday 15.31
Not Triggered
10Y-2Y spread Data
0.46 / -0.20
yday 46.00
Not Triggered
HY OAS Data
324.00 / 500.00
yday 324.00
Not Triggered
SPX drawdown from 52w high Data
-0.46 / -10.00
yday -0.81 / -10.00
Not Triggered
Anti-Fragile book (Dalio / Gave) Disinflationary boom
AIThe Nasdaq just closed at a record and HY OAS is still 324bp, so this is not a bust. Oil's premium is easing and copper is not confirming an inflation spike, which keeps the book in a disinflationary boom even with the 10-year at 5.24. Own that mix. Do not pay the long-bond sleev
DataHedge instruments : GLD, TLT, SH · Target cash 50%
Sleeve
Ticker
Target
Action
Gold AI
GLD
15%
Hold
Long bonds AI
TLT
15%
Buy
Intermediate bonds AI
IEF
15%
Hold
Commodities AI
DBC
5%
Hold
Defensive equity AI
SPLV
20%
Hold
Crash hedge AI
SH
0%
Exit
Cash AI
—
30%
Hold
If triggered today — do this now AI
• Cut the Nasdaq-record cluster first if two hard triggers flip.
• Add GLD before adding more duration if the flip is an oil shock rather than a growth scare.
AIZero of four hard triggers are fired. Breadth is the tension: only 45.39% of the S&P is above its 50-day, so the regime stays risk-on and the tape stays mixed. Do not add the crash hedge on this print.
Same bands as the 200-day, shown as context. This print does not vote.
Share of issues advancing48.4%
0%100%
A reading aid, not an engine vote. Under 40% is weak participation.
Regime score+1 constructive
−7+4
Sum of the five votes. The scale runs from −7 to +4.
VIX / VIX 3-month0.83 contango
0.701.30
Below 1 is the usual contango, which scores 0. Above 1 is backwardation and scores −1.
S&P distance from the 52-week high-1.84%
−15%at the high
A position, not a verdict. The all-time-high distance is the same number, so it is not drawn twice.
SPY minus equal-weight, 1 day+0.04 pp
equal-weight ledSPY led
Right means the cap-weighted index led. Blue is SPY, purple is equal-weight. Neither end is a buy.
New highs minus new lows+14
−40+40
Neither tail is a buy. The tick only says which extreme was larger.
XLK relative strength106.9 leading
90110
XLE relative strength102.2 weakening
90110
XLV relative strength98.2 lagging
90110
XLC relative strength98.0 lagging
90110
XLY relative strength94.3 lagging
90110
XLP relative strength93.9 lagging
90110
XLI relative strength93.8 lagging
90110
XLB relative strength93.8 lagging
90110
XLF relative strength93.0 lagging
90110
XLRE relative strength90.7 lagging
90110
XLU relative strength90.1 lagging
90110
Chart.js, from this issue and stored issues. Each axis is labeled on the chart.
Regime engine
constructivescore +1
Score +1 is constructive: HY OAS at 324bp is the only positive driver, while 60.1% of the S&P above its 200-day and VIX at 15.31 are both scored neutral.
Each symbol is compared with the S&P 500, not with its own price. Left to right (RS-ratio) is relative strength: above 100 means it has been stronger than the market. Bottom to top (RS-momentum) is whether that lead is growing: above 100 means it is getting stronger. Leading, top right, is strong and still improving. Weakening, bottom right, is still ahead but fading. Lagging, bottom left, is behind and still losing ground. Improving, top left, is behind but turning up. Leadership usually moves clockwise. The list and the chart are the same symbols.
Quadrant
Symbols
Leading
XLK Technology
Weakening
XLE Energy
Lagging
XLV Health Care, XLC Communication, XLY Discretionary, XLP Staples, XLI Industrials, XLB Materials, XLF Financials, XLRE Real Estate, XLU Utilities
Relative rotation (RS-ratio vs momentum)
Yield curve: today vs prior
VIX term structure
TradingView
This heatmap is TradingView, with its own data and its mark left in place. It is not the numbers in this letter. The other panels load when you choose them. If a panel is empty, their data-set name changed; the charts above still stand.
Global indices
9/11 above 200d · 4/11 above 50d · 10/11 up today · 3 within 3% of 52w high · best 1m: Nasdaq Composite +4.1% · worst 1m: CAC 40 -7.1%
Index
Last
1d
5d
1m
3m
YTD
vs 52w hi
vs 200d
vs 50d
RS
United States
S&P 500
7,722.72
+0.73%
-0.27%
+0.14%
+2.96%
+12.81%
-0.81%
+7.46%
+1.20%
bench.
Nasdaq-100
30,807.93
+1.00%
+1.07%
+3.93%
+3.47%
+22.01%
0.00%
+12.52%
+5.04%
Leading103.6
Nasdaq Composite
27,190.86
+1.19%
+0.45%
+4.06%
+4.49%
+16.99%
-0.20%
+10.62%
+3.64%
Leading102.4
Dow Jones Industrial
51,176.96
+0.49%
-1.26%
-4.28%
-0.61%
+6.48%
-5.84%
+2.37%
-2.70%
Lagging96.1
Russell 2000
2,832.9
+0.94%
-0.16%
-5.76%
-2.92%
+14.14%
-7.68%
+2.85%
-3.80%
Lagging95.0
Europe
Euro Stoxx 50
6,238.5
+0.16%
-1.26%
-3.59%
+0.11%
+7.63%
-4.77%
+2.94%
-2.19%
Lagging96.7
DAX
25,231.2
+0.38%
-0.29%
-3.30%
+0.36%
+3.02%
-4.57%
+1.95%
-1.83%
Lagging97.1
CAC 40
7,897.19
+0.13%
-2.08%
-7.11%
-5.99%
-3.10%
-9.50%
-4.10%
-5.88%
Lagging92.8
FTSE 100
10,462
-0.16%
-1.85%
-2.66%
+0.32%
+5.34%
-4.11%
+0.49%
-2.63%
Lagging96.3
Asia
Nikkei 225
69,946.86
+2.40%
+6.77%
+1.79%
+0.91%
+38.95%
-3.34%
+17.65%
+5.70%
Improving100.0
Hang Seng
23,984.28
+0.05%
-3.42%
-4.51%
-3.46%
-6.42%
-14.24%
-6.25%
-4.40%
Lagging95.2
daily close, local currency (not FX-adjusted); 52w high uses closes
GeneralYesterday's Market Retrospective 1 minMonday's US session rose because a softer jobs print cut October hike odds and the Nasdaq made a record close on the AI bid. The S&P finished at 7773.95, up 0.66%, and the Nasdaq Composite…
YESTERDAY'S MARKET RETROSPECTIVE
Monday's US session rose because a softer jobs print cut October hike odds and the Nasdaq made a record close on the AI bid. The S&P finished at 7773.95, up 0.66%, and the Nasdaq Composite at 27477.31, up 1.05%.
Bridge to Today
The next tell is whether bank earnings in the week of Oct 13 and September CPI extend that bid or hand it back to the 5.24% 10-year.
Nasdaq Composite+1.19% today
−3%+3%
US 10Y5.24%
3%6%
Now. The Nasdaq's move on this tape, and the 10-year. Yesterday's close stays in the sentence above.
GeneralConcept of the Day 1 minWhat a high-yield credit spread is actually pricing
CONCEPT OF THE DAY
What a high-yield credit spread is actually pricing
Why today : Today's tape shows HY OAS at 324bp, 12bp wider, while VIX is 15.31. That split is what this spread is for.
A high-yield option-adjusted spread is the extra yield investors demand to own junk bonds instead of Treasuries, after stripping out the value of bonds that can be called early. A wider spread means lenders want more pay for default and liquidity risk. A tighter spread means that pay is being competed away.
The spread is a price of credit fear, not a stock-market forecast. Equities can rise while spreads widen when the bid sits in a few large stocks and lenders quietly ask for more protection. Compare the spread with its own recent range, and with investment-grade spreads, rather than with yesterday's index close.
When the spread is calm and equities are making highs, the risk to watch is complacency. When the spread jumps while equity volatility stays low, credit is warning before the stock tape does. Treat a multi-week widening as a reason to slow new risk, not as a one-day signal.
Stocks
StocksUS Equity Ideas 1 minMSFT BUY
US EQUITY IDEAS
Ticker
Name
Conviction
1d
MSFTNEW
Microsoft
7.25
+1.48%
MSFTGROWTHBUYNEW
Microsoft • Technology
7.25/10Conviction
$525.18
▲ +1.48%
Melius's Oct 5 Buy and $665 target point to AI-security demand as the next leg. At 525.18, MSFT is still above its 50-day, so the add is with the trend.
PE 20.78PEG 0.66RSI 60Melius PT 665
Fundamentals
7/10
Sentiment / flow
—
Catalyst
8/10
Narrative
7/10
Technicals
7/10
52-week range
Melius upgraded Microsoft to Buy and raised the target to $665 on Oct 5.FOMC minutes on Oct 7, then the Oct 27-28 meeting.
Mkt Cap
$2.8T
P/E
20.8
Target
$665.00
Invalidation: Weekly close under the 50-day near 480, or Melius pulls the Buy.
MSFT between stop and target525.18
0665
Stop on the left, target on the right. Red and green mark those ends only. The tick is the last price.
TradingView's price for MSFT. It is not the last print in this letter.
Desk research framework — not a recommendation to buy or sell.
StocksEU Equity Ideas 1 min
EU EQUITY IDEAS
Looked. Nothing priced.
Desk research framework — not a recommendation to buy or sell.
StocksPenny Plays 1 min
PENNY PLAYS
Looked. Nothing priced.
Most sub-$5 names that look cheap stay cheap or go to zero. This screen is diligence, not a buy list.
Desk research framework — not a recommendation to buy or sell.
StocksTrend Follow 5 minBuy only SMH and XLK. 4 of 17 scored names are above the 50-day, QQQ could not be scored, and the exits are the sleeves that already lost that average.
TREND FOLLOW
Buy only SMH and XLK. 4 of 17 scored names are above the 50-day, QQQ could not be scored, and the exits are the sleeves that already lost that average.
4 of 17 scored names are above the 50-day. QQQ had 19 sessions and was not scored. Both buys are technology, so the book is concentrated on purpose.
Ticker
Name
Conviction
1d
SMH
VanEck Semiconductor
7
+3.55%
XLK
Technology Select Sector
7
+2.07%
XLE
Energy Select Sector
4.67
+2.15%
XLV
Health Care Select Sector
4
-1.33%
XBI
SPDR S&P Biotech
4
-2.06%
XLB
Materials Select Sector
4
+0.33%
SMHTECHNOLOGYBUY🔥 55-issue streak
VanEck Semiconductor
7/10Conviction
$630.60
▲ +3.55%
Stay long SMH at 630.6: it is 10.32% above the 50-day and Hon Hai's beat keeps the AI-hardware bid in front of the next session.
Rules-based momentum sleeve — factor not sRules-based momentum sleeve — factor not sHon Hai beat estimates on AI server demandSemis are the trend that is still leading.630.60 is 10.3% above the 50-day.
Fundamentals
—
Sentiment / flow
—
Catalyst
7/10
Narrative
6/10
Technicals
8/10
Hon Hai sales beat on AI server demand, Oct 5.
Invalidation: A daily close back through the 50-day.
TradingView's price for SMH. It is not the last print in this letter.
XLK at 199.81 is still a buy versus its 50-day. The Melius MSFT upgrade is the fresh reason the sector bid extends.
Rules-based momentum sleeve — factor not sRules-based momentum sleeve — factor not sMelius upgraded MSFT, the sector's largestThe AI-security bid is a sector story, not199.81 is 8.4% above the 50-day.
Fundamentals
—
Sentiment / flow
—
Catalyst
7/10
Narrative
6/10
Technicals
8/10
Melius upgraded Microsoft to Buy with a $665 target on Oct 5.
Invalidation: A daily close back through the 50-day.
TradingView's price for XLK. It is not the last print in this letter.
XLE at 62.82 is above its 50-day, but 20-day relative strength is -1.63 versus SPY, so this is a hold, not a new buy.
Rules-based momentum sleeve — factor not sRules-based momentum sleeve — factor not sThe oil shock is fading, so the catalyst cEnergy is not where the new highs are beinAbove the 50-day, but 20-day RS failed the
Fundamentals
—
Sentiment / flow
—
Catalyst
4/10
Narrative
5/10
Technicals
5/10
Oil's geopolitical premium is easing rather than expanding.
Invalidation: A daily close back through the 50-day.
TradingView's price for XLE. It is not the last print in this letter.
XLE · 20d illustrative range
XLVHEALTH CAREEXIT🔥 54-issue streak
Health Care Select Sector
4/10Conviction
$166.18
▼ -1.33%
Exit XLV. The close is back through the 50-day, and the rule does not wait for a narrative to catch up.
Rules-based momentum sleeve — factor not sRules-based momentum sleeve — factor not sNo fresh catalyst scored on an exit rule.Leadership has left health care.Close is back through the 50-day, so the r
Fundamentals
—
Sentiment / flow
—
Catalyst
—
Narrative
—
Technicals
4/10
No fresh health-care catalyst offsets the lost 50-day.
Invalidation: A daily close back through the 50-day.
TradingView's price for XLV. It is not the last print in this letter.
XBIHEALTH CAREEXIT🔥 54-issue streak
SPDR S&P Biotech
4/10Conviction
$154.43
▼ -2.06%
Exit XBI. It lost the 50-day and relative strength is deeply negative, so the sleeve does not sponsor a bounce.
Rules-based momentum sleeve — factor not sRules-based momentum sleeve — factor not sNo fresh catalyst scored on an exit rule.Biotech is lagging the tape, not leading iClose is back through the 50-day, so the r
Fundamentals
—
Sentiment / flow
—
Catalyst
—
Narrative
—
Technicals
4/10
No dated biotech catalyst cleared the exit rule.
Invalidation: A daily close back through the 50-day.
TradingView's price for XBI. It is not the last print in this letter.
XLBMATERIALSEXIT🔥 54-issue streak
Materials Select Sector
4/10Conviction
$48.86
▲ +0.33%
Exit XLB. A close under the 50-day means materials are not the way to express the next commodity move.
Rules-based momentum sleeve — factor not sRules-based momentum sleeve — factor not sNo fresh catalyst scored on an exit rule.Materials are not confirming a new commodiClose is back through the 50-day, so the r
Fundamentals
—
Sentiment / flow
—
Catalyst
—
Narrative
—
Technicals
4/10
Copper's last print did not confirm a new industrial bid.
Invalidation: A daily close back through the 50-day.
TradingView's price for XLB. It is not the last print in this letter.
Desk research framework — not a recommendation to buy or sell.
CryptoCryptocurrency Landscape 2 minHold bitcoin and ether. Equities made the highs; 85228 bitcoin and 2697.17 ether did not confirm them, and the ETF-flow prints did not agree.
CRYPTOCURRENCY LANDSCAPE
Hold bitcoin and ether. Equities made the highs; 85228 bitcoin and 2697.17 ether did not confirm them, and the ETF-flow prints did not agree.
Ticker
Name
Conviction
1d
BTC-USD
Bitcoin
4.67
-1.17%
ETH-USD
Ether
4.67
-1.01%
BTC-USDHOLD🔥 38-issue streak
Bitcoin
4.67/10Conviction
$85228.00
▼ -1.17%
Hold bitcoin near 85228. The equity record did not pull it higher, and there is no fresh catalyst to add into that divergence.
No protocol or supply metric was scored toETF flow trackers disagreed, so flow is unNo fresh policy or protocol catalyst todayEquities made highs while bitcoin did not 85228 is a one-day dip inside a choppy ran
Fundamentals
—
Sentiment / flow
—
Catalyst
4/10
Narrative
5/10
Technicals
5/10
No fresh policy or protocol catalyst cleared today.
Invalidation: A daily close under 80000 that sticks for two sessions.
TradingView's price for BTC-USD. It is not the last print in this letter.
undefined · 20d illustrative range
ETH-USDHOLD🔥 37-issue streak
Ether
4.67/10Conviction
$2697.17
▼ -1.01%
Hold ether near 2697.17. It is following bitcoin's dip, not leading a separate bid, so there is nothing to add.
No fee or supply metric was scored today.ETF flow trackers disagreed, so flow is unNo fresh upgrade or ETF catalyst today.Ether is following bitcoin, not leading a 2697.17 is a one-day dip, not a trend brea
Fundamentals
—
Sentiment / flow
—
Catalyst
4/10
Narrative
5/10
Technicals
5/10
No fresh upgrade or flow print agreed across sources.
Invalidation: A daily close under 2500 that sticks for two sessions.
TradingView's price for ETH-USD. It is not the last print in this letter.
undefined · 20d illustrative range
Desk research framework — not a recommendation to buy or sell.
General
GeneralCommodities Outlook 1 minDo not chase Brent. Friday's aggregator print is still 102.25, the shock is fading after the reserve release, and the call is watch until a fresh settle holds a level worth owning.
COMMODITIES OUTLOOK
Do not chase Brent. Friday's aggregator print is still 102.25, the shock is fading after the reserve release, and the call is watch until a fresh settle holds a level worth owning.
Oil is the idiosyncratic leg: equities rose and the 10-year eased, which is not an inflation-boom confirmation. Treat the next Brent print as a fade of the…
Ticker
Name
Conviction
1d
BZ=F
Brent
4.67
+1.42%
BrentENERGYWATCH🔥 5-issue streak
BZ=F
4.67/10Conviction
$102.25
▲ +1.42%
Watch Brent rather than buy it. The aggregator is still Friday's 102.25, and the reserve release is a reason the premium can bleed, not a reason to add.
No inventory balance was in today's inputsNo positioning print was in today's inputsThe G7 reserve release is already in the pThe shock is fading, not attracting a new Aggregator print is still Friday's 102.25.
Fundamentals
—
Sentiment / flow
—
Catalyst
5/10
Narrative
5/10
Technicals
4/10
G7 strategic-reserve release is already public.The next settle has to prove it can hold $100.
Invalidation: A fresh settle back above 105 that sticks for two sessions.
TradingView's price for BZ=F. It is not the last print in this letter.
StocksPortfolio Reality Check 7 min30d hit rate 50%
PORTFOLIO REALITY CHECK
P&L Across Portfolios
Tech-US
+4.87%
Named holdings. 142 smaller positions (32.55%) are off this picture.
Tech-US
Performance
Equity vs SPY
Drawdown
Total Value
$104873.15
Cash
$11059.77
P&L
$4873.15 (+4.87%)
Realized P&L
$-3536.17
TWR
+4.29%
Sharpe
1.32
Max DD
-2.39%
Sortino
3.53
Calmar
9.22
Ann. return
+22.05%
Beta vs SPY
N/A
Allocation
Positions89%
Cash11%
Today's Moves
Action
Ticker
Qty
Status
Sell
UNH
8.49
pending
Sell
RDDT
12.88
pending
Sell
HD
8.14
pending
Sell
MRK
3.91
pending
Sell
OI
66.09
pending
Sell
CRM
1.76
pending
Sell
SLB
12.9
pending
Sell
HAL
53.7
pending
Sell
HOOD
2.24
pending
Sell
RTX
1.36
pending
Sell
FIVE
1.12
pending
Sell
ADBE
1.02
pending
Sell
ORCL
1.54
pending
Buy
MSFT
0.4212
pending
Current Holdings
Position
Value
Unrealized P&L
TSM ×20.93
$10168.81
+19.3%
XOM ×129
$21126.79
+7.3%
UNH ×8.49
$3215.13
-11.2%
INTC ×14.08
$1636.04
+34.6%
MSFT ×11.91
$6256.21
+29.1%
AMZN ×5.95
$1496.51
-7.0%
CVX ×7.29
$1505.56
+3.8%
FRO ×38.46
$2067.19
+33.0%
+51 more holdings
Track Record
30 On Track · 16 Lagging · 13 Stopped Out
Position
Conviction Then
Return Since
Verdict
TSM (2026-07-19)
7/10
+19.3%
On Track
UNH (2026-07-19)
6.5/10
-11.2%
Stopped Out
XOM (2026-07-19)
8/10
+7.3%
On Track
INTC (2026-07-24)
7.5/10
+34.6%
On Track
MSFT (2026-07-28)
6.5/10
+29.1%
On Track
AMZN (2026-07-31)
8/10
-7.0%
Lagging
CVX (2026-08-01)
7/10
+3.8%
On Track
FRO (2026-08-02)
7/10
+33.0%
On Track
AMD (2026-08-03)
7/10
+34.5%
On Track
PLTR (2026-08-03)
6.5/10
+1.6%
On Track
MRVL (2026-08-05)
7/10
+167.5%
On Track
ELF (2026-08-06)
6.5/10
+20.1%
On Track
LLY (2026-08-06)
8/10
-2.9%
Lagging
NVDA (2026-08-06)
7.5/10
+10.6%
On Track
ABNB (2026-08-07)
7.5/10
+0.0%
On Track
TWLO (2026-08-07)
7/10
+55.8%
On Track
BRK-B (2026-08-10)
7.5/10
-3.4%
Lagging
CSCO (2026-08-10)
7/10
-6.8%
Lagging
MU (2026-08-13)
7.5/10
+11.0%
On Track
RDDT (2026-08-15)
8/10
-13.3%
Stopped Out
HD (2026-08-17)
7.5/10
-16.8%
Stopped Out
VLO (2026-08-18)
7/10
+19.3%
On Track
MRK (2026-08-20)
7/10
-8.3%
Stopped Out
TGT (2026-08-20)
7.5/10
-4.8%
Lagging
ADI (2026-08-21)
8/10
+13.2%
On Track
ROST (2026-08-21)
7/10
-3.1%
Lagging
AVGO (2026-08-22)
7/10
-1.6%
Lagging
OI (2026-08-24)
7/10
-22.4%
Stopped Out
V (2026-08-25)
7/10
-3.3%
Lagging
CRWD (2026-08-27)
8/10
+30.4%
On Track
CRM (2026-08-28)
8/10
-8.8%
Stopped Out
ESTC (2026-08-29)
8/10
-5.0%
Lagging
GAP (2026-08-30)
7/10
-0.8%
Lagging
SHEL (2026-08-30)
6.5/10
+6.2%
On Track
NAT (2026-08-31)
7/10
+23.6%
On Track
SLB (2026-09-01)
7/10
-16.3%
Stopped Out
DELL (2026-09-03)
7.5/10
+10.6%
On Track
HAL (2026-09-03)
6.5/10
-12.9%
Stopped Out
HOOD (2026-09-04)
7/10
-8.5%
Stopped Out
APH (2026-09-05)
7.5/10
+5.4%
On Track
RTX (2026-09-05)
7.5/10
-8.2%
Stopped Out
DUOL (2026-09-06)
7.5/10
-4.8%
Lagging
FIVE (2026-09-06)
7.5/10
-14.4%
Stopped Out
ADBE (2026-09-07)
6.5/10
-10.4%
Stopped Out
PSX (2026-09-07)
7/10
+5.7%
On Track
ORCL (2026-09-11)
7.2/10
-12.3%
Stopped Out
LHX (2026-09-15)
6/10
-3.5%
Lagging
IREN (2026-09-16)
6/10
-2.6%
Lagging
LITE (2026-09-17)
7/10
+18.7%
On Track
HAE (2026-09-18)
6.8/10
-2.7%
Lagging
JBHT (2026-09-18)
6.5/10
-3.0%
Lagging
COIN (2026-09-19)
7.4/10
-3.1%
Lagging
LRCX (2026-09-19)
7.4/10
+20.0%
On Track
ACN (2026-09-20)
7/10
+7.6%
On Track
TLN (2026-09-20)
6.8/10
+13.5%
On Track
JCI (2026-09-26)
7/10
+4.4%
On Track
SNPS (2026-09-26)
7/10
+14.7%
On Track
SNX (2026-09-28)
7.3/10
+7.5%
On Track
TFX (2026-09-28)
6.3/10
+0.6%
On Track
Euro-only
Performance
Equity vs SPY
Drawdown
Total Value
$97821.52
Cash
$14987.73
P&L
$-2178.48 (-0.22%)
Realized P&L
$-42835.98
Path statistics are hidden. The quotes are estimated, or the time-weighted return disagrees with dollar P&L.
Today's Moves
No new activity today — no open thesis needed adjusting.
Current Holdings
⚠ Live EU quotes were unavailable, so every position below is marked at cost rather than a fresh price.
Position
Value
Unrealized P&L
ASML.AS ×0.4702
$702.62
—
TTE.PA ×368
$27276.04
—
UNA.AS ×48.5
$2832.95
—
RR.L ×101
$1460.08
—
VIE.PA ×48.5
$1430.88
—
GLE.PA ×22.15
$1755.04
—
MNDI.L ×158
$1402.26
—
NWG.L ×191
$1346.17
—
+47 more holdings
Penny-Plays
Performance
Equity vs SPY
Drawdown
Total Value
$95417.43
Cash
$81164.16
P&L
$-4582.57 (-4.58%)
Realized P&L
$-4582.57
Path statistics are hidden. The quotes are estimated, or the time-weighted return disagrees with dollar P&L.
Today's Moves
No new activity today — no open thesis needed adjusting.
Current Holdings
⚠ Live penny quotes were unavailable, so every position below is marked at cost rather than a fresh price.
Position
Value
Unrealized P&L
GOSS ×18578
$3755.55
—
PYPD ×1564
$6940.50
—
STXS ×2738
$3557.21
—
Anti-Fragile
Performance
Equity vs SPY
Drawdown
Total Value
$100000.00
Cash
$35000.00
P&L
$0.0000 (+0.00%)
Realized P&L
$0.0000
Path statistics are hidden. The quotes are estimated, or the time-weighted return disagrees with dollar P&L.
Today's Moves
Action
Ticker
Qty
Status
Sell
GLD
26.31
pending
Sell
DBC
461
pending
Buy
TLT
194
pending
Buy
IEF
56.15
pending
Buy
SPLV
141
pending
Current Holdings
⚠ Every anti-fragile holding came back price-estimated, so market value is at cost and path statistics can disagree with the flat dollar P&L.
Position
Value
Unrealized P&L
GLD ×61.65
$25000.00
—
IEF ×108
$10000.00
—
DBC ×654
$20000.00
—
SPLV ×132
$10000.00
—
Trend-follow
Performance
Equity vs SPY
Drawdown
Total Value
$99618.38
Cash
$73446.40
P&L
$-381.62 (-0.38%)
Realized P&L
$-381.62
Path statistics are hidden. The quotes are estimated, or the time-weighted return disagrees with dollar P&L.
Today's Moves
Action
Ticker
Qty
Status
Sell
XLV
30.27
pending
Sell
XBI
32
pending
Sell
XLB
93.53
pending
Buy
SMH
3.49
pending
Buy
XLK
11.03
pending
Hold
XLE
0.0000
—
Current Holdings
⚠ Every trend holding came back price-estimated, so market value is at cost and path statistics can disagree with the small dollar loss.
Position
Value
Unrealized P&L
XLE ×87.86
$5539.52
—
XLK ×11.57
$2271.54
—
SMH ×5.03
$2990.61
—
XLV ×30.27
$5207.77
—
XBI ×32
$5207.77
—
XLB ×93.53
$4954.78
—
Commodities
Performance
Equity vs SPY
Drawdown
Total Value
$100000.00
Cash
$26717.65
P&L
$0.0000 (+0.00%)
Realized P&L
$0.0000
Path statistics are hidden. The quotes are estimated, or the time-weighted return disagrees with dollar P&L.
Today's Moves
No new activity today — no open thesis needed adjusting.
Current Holdings
⚠ Every commodity holding came back price-estimated, so market value is at cost rather than a fresh quote.
Position
Value
Unrealized P&L
USO ×206
$26795.83
—
GLD ×30.1
$11738.20
—
CPER ×150
$5929.12
—
SLV ×93.58
$5545.24
—
PPLT ×66.63
$1111.38
—
BNO ×35.14
$1850.57
—
URA ×23.16
$1066.93
—
UGA ×26.78
$3377.87
—
+11 more holdings
Crypto
Performance
Equity vs SPY
Drawdown
Total Value
$100000.00
Cash
$32370.73
P&L
$0.0000 (+0.00%)
Realized P&L
$0.0000
Path statistics are hidden. The quotes are estimated, or the time-weighted return disagrees with dollar P&L.
Today's Moves
No new activity today — no open thesis needed adjusting.
Current Holdings
⚠ Every crypto holding came back price-estimated, so market value is at cost rather than a fresh quote.
Position
Value
Unrealized P&L
BTC-USD ×0.5510
$35015.45
—
ETH-USD ×14.91
$28949.67
—
SOL-USD ×26.81
$2795.91
—
XRP-USD ×628
$868.24
—
30-day hit rate across all portfolios : +50.00%
Glossary
backwardation
A term structure where nearer maturities cost more than later ones, often a stress signal for VIX.
basis point
One hundredth of a percentage point (0.01%).
yield curve
Yields of government bonds across maturities; an inverted curve (short above long) has often preceded slowdowns.
conviction
The desk’s 0-10 score for how strongly the evidence supports an idea; not a probability.
contango
A term structure where later maturities cost more than nearer ones.
drawdown
Peak-to-trough decline of a price or portfolio.
breadth
How many stocks participate in a market move (for example % above their 200-day average).
Sharpe
Excess return per unit of volatility; higher is better.
HY OAS
A high-yield option-adjusted spread is the extra yield investors demand to own junk bonds instead of Treasuries, after stripping out the value of bonds that can be called early.
2s10s
The 10-year yield minus the 2-year yield, a common curve-shape gauge.
beta
Sensitivity of a stock to market moves; 1.0 moves with the market.
VIX
CBOE Volatility Index: the options market’s price for 30-day S&P 500 volatility; higher means more expected turbulence.
RSI
Relative Strength Index: a 0-100 momentum gauge; above 70 is often read as overbought, below 30 as oversold.
P/E
Price-to-earnings ratio: share price divided by earnings per share.
OAS
Option-adjusted spread: the extra yield of a bond over a risk-free benchmark, adjusted for embedded options.
RRG
Relative Rotation Graph: plots relative strength and its momentum to show leaders and laggards.
ATH
All-time high.
TWR
Time-weighted return: performance that removes the effect of cash flows in and out.
Legal & risk disclosures
General research disclaimer: this newsletter is a desk research framework compiled from third-party market data, filings and news. It may contain errors, omissions or delays, and past performance does not predict future results. Figures labelled illustrative (for example fan charts) are model outputs, not forecasts.
Not investment advice: nothing here is a personalised recommendation, an offer or a solicitation to buy or sell any security, currency, commodity or crypto-asset. It does not take into account your objectives, financial situation or risk tolerance. Consider seeking independent professional advice.
Jurisdiction: this content is not directed at any person or entity in a place where its distribution would be unlawful or require registration. Availability of the instruments mentioned varies by country; you are responsible for complying with the rules that apply to you.