market_pulse — Index analytics still carries the Nov 5 S&P close of 7353.73 and a -4.36% change. The index band and the panel use Friday's 7376.86. Breadth on the analytics object matches Friday's 191/238 split.
market_pulse — Nikkei and Hang Seng are off the index band. The panel's Nikkei d1 of -7.64 is the Nov 4 to Nov 6 gap, not a one-day change, and Hang Seng's one-day sign was already disputed.
market_pulse — index_ladder was not in pulse_ready.json. STOXX 600's 648.33 level had no panel change, so the row was omitted.
yesterday_retrospective — Sunday run. No cash session has closed since Friday, which Saturday's issue already explained, so presentation is skip.
commodities_outlook — Gold history's prior bar still disagrees with the cited -0.94% at 4074.90. WTI history's prior bar is the stale 87.06, so the published change is the cited +0.34% to 90.83. Gas uses the cited +1.73% because history's +3.38% disagrees by more than 2 points. Palladium's history sign disagrees with the cited -2.60%, so it was not published.
crypto_landscape — Nov 6 bitcoin ETF flow is SoSoValue via TokenPost at -$411.92m. No ether flow is published because a single secondary source was not enough.
us_equity_ideas — No US name cleared a verified catalyst from the last 48 hours that was also a buy. The screener ran (348 rows, dated Nov 6). Zero ideas is the section.
eu_equity_ideas — The EU screener returned 31 rows and none had a verified last-48-hour catalyst that cleared the buy bar. Zero ideas.
penny_plays — screener unavailable or empty for category=penny — fell back to web search; penny universe may not be seeded yet. No sub-$5 name with a dated catalyst and a checkable balance sheet was published.
forex_rebalancing — squawk-alert feed unavailable — fell back to central-bank and markets coverage for same-day FX events. EUR crosses other than USD were not scored. The 1-session fx move is large versus the 5-session move, and no intervention rung was found. The contrarian note is CPI, not intervention.
trend_follow — QQQ history returned about 40 bars, so it was not scored. ITA's history showed an implausible one-day drop and was discarded. XLP and XLF buys, and the XLK, SMH, XLE and XBI sells, were already pending, so no second ticket was sent. XLB is back above its 50-day, but an older XLB sell is still queued.
risk_cover_playbook — Put/call was not available. VIX9D and VIX3M are dated Nov 5 against a Nov 6 VIX. The 9-day ratio and a thin backwardation are the two stress internals that fund the 5% SH sleeve.
portfolio_reality_check — Every book except Tech-US came back price_estimated or, for Crypto, the positions call had to be repeated. Those marks stay at cost and are excluded from the blend. Anti-fragile DBC, SPLV and IEF sells and the TLT buy were already pending. Cash was about 4851, which funds the new SH sleeve and not a second TLT ticket.
portfolio_reality_check — Hit rate uses Tech-US picks from the last 30 days that still have a live open P&L. Estimated books and names without a fresh price are not in the ratio. Every Tech-US line already through -8% already had a pending sell, so no new stop was sent.
1 of 7 books, weighted by capital invested. Estimated quotes, and books whose path statistics disagree with dollar P&L, are left out. Hit rate is 4 of 9 reviewed picks still on track. Average gain 14.9%, average loss -10.3%.
GeneralMarket Pulse 8 minS&P is 7376.86 (+23.13) and VIX is 25.64 (-2.54). The 10-year is 4.86 and the dollar index is 102.28 (+0.73).
MARKET PULSE
Breadth shows 191 advancers against 238 decliners, and 62.38% of the S&P is above its 200-day. SPY lagged RSP by 1.52pp.
Mixed tape cautious -1 Book Neutral 1/4 triggered
AIS&P is 7376.86 (+23.13) and VIX is 25.64 (-2.54). The 10-year is 4.86 and the dollar index is 102.28 (+0.73).
Indexes
S&P 500 Data
7,376.86
yday 7,353.73
▲ +0.31%
Nasdaq Composite Data
24,579.43
yday 24,579.43
▲ +1.09%
Nasdaq-100 Data
26,989.99
yday 26,989.99
▲ +1.35%
Dow Jones Industrial Data
51,285.73
yday 51,285.73
▼ -0.46%
Russell 2000 Data
2,754.11
yday 2,754.11
▲ +0.89%
Euro Stoxx 50 Data
6,170.49
yday 6,231.54
▼ -0.98%
DAX Data
25,820.36
yday 25,820.36
▼ -1.92%
CAC 40 Data
8,139.00
yday 8,139.00
▼ -0.81%
FTSE 100 Data
10,673.90
yday 10,673.90
▼ -1.01%
Nikkei 225 Data
57,434.77
yday 57,434.77
▼ -7.64%
Hang Seng Data
24,481.86
yday 24,533.36
▲ +2.64%
Commodities
Metals
Gold Data
4,074.90
yday 4,074.90
▼ -0.94%
Energy
Oil (WTI) Data
90.83
yday 90.83
▲ +0.34%
Natural gas Data
3.00
▲ +1.73%
Crypto
Bitcoin Data
75,762.00
yday 75,985.00
▼ -0.29%
Ether Data
2,233.27
yday 2,243.78
▼ -0.47%
US spot Bitcoin ETFs AI
-411.9 $m
yday -411.9 $m
Outbound
Rates
US 2Y Data
4.51
yday 4.51
+5bp
US 10Y Data
4.86
yday 4.86
+2bp
US 30Y Data
5.26
yday 5.26
+1bp
2s10s spread Data
35.00
yday 35.00
-3bp
10Y-3M spread Data
67.00
yday 67.00
unch
Credit
US HY OAS Data
348.00
yday 348.00
+16bp
Baa-10Y spread Data
157.00
yday 152.00
+5bp
IG OAS Data
93.00 bp
calm
HY minus IG Data
255.00 bp
watch
Volatility
VIX Data
25.64
yday 28.18
-2.54 (-9.0%)
VIX9D / VIX Data
1.27 ratio
stress
VIX / VIX3M Data
1.00 ratio
stress
MOVE Data
92.77 index
watch
Dollar & FX
US Dollar Index (DXY) Data
102.28
yday 102.28
+0.73 (+0.7%)
EUR/USD Data
1.11
yday 1.11
▲ +0.01%
Dollar index 5-session change Data
0.49 pct
watch
Breadth
% > 50d Data
60.1%
yday 60.1%
—
% > 200d Data
62.4%
yday 62.4%
—
Adv / Dec Data
191 / 238
yday 191 / 238
—
New hi / lo Data
64 / 16
yday 64 / 16
—
SPY−RSP 1d Data
-1.5pp
yday -1.5pp
—
SPY−RSP 5d Data
-4.83pp
yday -4.83pp
—
SPY−RSP 21d Data
-7.82pp
yday -7.82pp
—
% from 52w Data
-6.18%
yday -6.18%
—
Europe % > SMA50 Data
36.7%
yday 36.7%
—
Europe % > SMA200 Data
70.0%
yday 70.0%
—
Europe % advancing Data
38.1%
yday 38.1%
—
SPY-TLT 20-session correlation Data
-0.10 correlation
calm
% of S&P names above the 200-day Data
62.38 pct
watch
Liquidity
SOFR minus fed funds Data
4.00 bp
calm
Initial claims Data
189,000.00 persons
calm
Cross-asset
Average sector pairwise correlation Data
0.32 correlation
calm
Gold/copper ratio Data
655.20 ratio
watch
Cover checks
VIX above 25 Data
25.64 / 25.00
yday 25.64 / 25.00
Triggered
10Y-2Y spread below -0.20 Data
0.35 / -0.20
yday 0.35 / -0.20
Not Triggered
HY OAS above 500bp Data
348.00 / 500.00
yday 348.00 / 500.00
Not Triggered
S&P drawdown from ATH beyond -10% Data
-5.87 / -10.00
yday -5.89 / -10.00
Not Triggered
Anti-Fragile book (Dalio / Gave) Deflationary bust
AIEquities are 5.87% under the high and the S&P is below its 50-day, while crude's week was a double-digit drop rather than an inflation spike. TLT at 81.92 still sits above its 50-day, and HY at 348bp widened without breaking 350. Gold's week was up and Friday was down, so the met
DataHedge instruments : GLD, TLT, SH · Target cash 30%
Sleeve
Ticker
Target
Action
Gold AI
GLD
25%
Hold
Long bonds AI
TLT
30%
Hold
Intermediate bonds AI
IEF
10%
Hold
Commodities AI
DBC
0%
Exit
Defensive equity AI
SPLV
0%
Exit
Crash hedge AI
SH
5%
Buy
Cash AI
—
30%
Hold
If triggered today — do this now AI
• VIX is already through 25. The next add is if HY OAS clears 500bp or the S&P drawdown clears 10%.
• The standing book already carries 5% SH because two vol internals are in stress.
AIOne of four hard triggers is live, VIX at 25.64, so the cover regime stays neutral. Internals are 2 stress, 5 watch and 5 calm. Two stress readings are the rich 9-day vol and a thin VIX-over-VIX3M backwardation, which puts 5% on SH and cuts cash from 35 to 30. The quadrant stays a deflationary bust: equities are under the 50-day, crude's week was an air-pocket, and TLT is still above its own 50-day, while HY at 348bp has not blown out.
Each symbol is compared with the S&P 500, not with its own price. Left to right (RS-ratio) is relative strength: above 100 means it has been stronger than the market. Bottom to top (RS-momentum) is whether that lead is growing: above 100 means it is getting stronger. Leading, top right, is strong and still improving. Weakening, bottom right, is still ahead but fading. Lagging, bottom left, is behind and still losing ground. Improving, top left, is behind but turning up. Leadership usually moves clockwise. The list and the chart are the same symbols.
Quadrant
Symbols
Leading
XLV Health Care, XLP Staples, XLY Discretionary, XLU Utilities, XLRE Real Estate, XLF Financials, XLB Materials
Improving
XLI Industrials
Weakening
XLE Energy
Lagging
XLC Communication, XLK Technology
Relative rotation (RS-ratio vs momentum)
Yield curve: today vs prior
VIX term structure
Event radar · next 7 days
Date
Event
11-10 12:30
● Consumer Price Index US
11-13 12:30
● Producer Price Index US
TradingView
This heatmap is TradingView, with its own data and its mark left in place. It is not the numbers in this letter. The other panels load when you choose them. If a panel is empty, their data-set name changed; the charts above still stand.
Global indices
5/11 above 200d · 1/11 above 50d · 5/11 up today · 2 within 3% of 52w high · best 1m: CAC 40 +3.2% · worst 1m: Nasdaq-100 -13.4%
Index
Last
1d
5d
1m
3m
YTD
vs 52w hi
vs 200d
vs 50d
RS
United States
S&P 500
7,376.86
+0.31%
-2.68%
-4.48%
-1.76%
+7.76%
-5.87%
+1.44%
-3.88%
bench.
Nasdaq-100
26,989.99
+1.35%
-4.91%
-13.38%
-9.19%
+6.89%
-13.56%
-3.49%
-8.94%
Lagging95.1
Nasdaq Composite
24,579.43
+1.09%
-3.37%
-10.75%
-7.91%
+5.75%
-10.94%
-2.01%
-7.13%
Lagging97.0
Dow Jones Industrial
51,285.73
-0.46%
-0.94%
+0.21%
-5.09%
+6.70%
-5.64%
+1.23%
-1.54%
Leading102.0
Russell 2000
2,754.11
+0.89%
-2.05%
-1.40%
-9.24%
+10.97%
-10.24%
-1.90%
-3.11%
Leading100.0
Europe
Euro Stoxx 50
6,170.49
-0.98%
+0.64%
-2.44%
-2.32%
+6.46%
-5.81%
+1.20%
-2.35%
Leading101.4
DAX
25,820.36
-1.92%
+0.01%
+2.72%
+3.92%
+5.43%
-2.34%
+3.72%
+0.01%
Leading104.1
CAC 40
8,139
-0.81%
+2.13%
+3.20%
-2.41%
-0.13%
-6.73%
-0.95%
-0.61%
Leading103.2
FTSE 100
10,673.9
-1.01%
-0.52%
-0.32%
+0.96%
+7.48%
-2.17%
+1.74%
-0.70%
Leading103.0
Asia
Nikkei 225
57,434.77
-7.64%
-8.70%
-12.82%
-11.11%
+14.09%
-20.63%
-6.80%
-12.68%
Lagging91.3
Hang Seng
24,481.86
+2.64%
+3.35%
-0.96%
+3.66%
-4.48%
-12.47%
-3.82%
-1.75%
Leading102.2
daily close, local currency (not FX-adjusted); 52w high uses closes
Stocks
StocksUS Equity Ideas 1 min
US EQUITY IDEAS
Looked. Nothing priced.
Desk research framework — not a recommendation to buy or sell.
StocksEU Equity Ideas 1 min
EU EQUITY IDEAS
Looked. Nothing priced.
Desk research framework — not a recommendation to buy or sell.
StocksPenny Plays 1 min
PENNY PLAYS
Looked. Nothing priced.
Most sub-$5 names that look cheap stay cheap or go to zero. This screen is diligence, not a buy list.
Desk research framework — not a recommendation to buy or sell.
StocksTrend Follow 6 minStaples and financials still clear both averages into Tuesday's CPI. Tech, semis, energy and biotech remain below the 50-day, so those exits stand.
TREND FOLLOW
Staples and financials still clear both averages into Tuesday's CPI. Tech, semis, energy and biotech remain below the 50-day, so those exits stand.
7 of 18 universe names have a valid close above the 50-day. QQQ returned 41 bars and ITA's history showed a one-day drop that was discarded.
Ticker
Name
Conviction
1d
XLP
Consumer Staples
7.5
-1.28%
XLF
Financials
6.5
-0.59%
XLV
Health Care
5
-0.06%
XLB
Materials
5
-0.73%
XLE
Energy
3.5
-0.02%
XLK
Technology
3.5
+1.45%
SMH
Semiconductors
3
+3.62%
XBI
Biotech
4
+2.57%
XLPMOMENTUM ETFBUY🔥 24-issue streak
Consumer Staples
7.5/10Conviction
$90.08
▼ -1.28%
Staples stay the lead trend into Tuesday's CPI as long as the close holds above the 50-day near 85.51.
Rules sleeve. Fundamentals are not scored.Rules sleeve. Flow is not scored.CPI on Nov 10 is the dated test of the defRules sleeve. Narrative is not scored.Above both averages and 15.36 points ahead
Fundamentals
—
Sentiment / flow
—
Catalyst
7/10
Narrative
—
Technicals
8/10
Tuesday CPI is the test of whether the defensive bid, already 15.36 points ahead of SPY over 20 sessions, holds.
Invalidation: Daily close back through the 50-day near 85.51.
TradingView's price for XLP. It is not the last print in this letter.
XLP · 20d illustrative range
XLFMOMENTUM ETFBUY🔥 9-issue streak
Financials
6.5/10Conviction
$57.16
▼ -0.59%
Banks still clear both averages into CPI, with the 2-year at 4.51 after Friday's 5bp backup.
Rules sleeve. Fundamentals are not scored.Rules sleeve. Flow is not scored.Friday's 5bp backup in the 2-year is the rRules sleeve. Narrative is not scored.Above both averages, 11.19 points ahead of
Fundamentals
—
Sentiment / flow
—
Catalyst
6/10
Narrative
—
Technicals
7/10
The 2-year yield rose 5bp to 4.51 on Nov 6, the rate tape that matters for the banks into CPI.
Invalidation: Daily close back through the 50-day near 56.42.
TradingView's price for XLF. It is not the last print in this letter.
XLF · 20d illustrative range
XLVMOMENTUM ETFHOLD🔥 29-issue streak
Health Care
5/10Conviction
$184.80
▼ -0.06%
Health care is already held and still above its 50-day, so this is a stay, not a new buy.
Rules sleeve. Fundamentals are not scored.Rules sleeve. Flow is not scored.No fresh sector catalyst beyond the trend Rules sleeve. Narrative is not scored.Above the 50-day. Already held, so not a n
Fundamentals
—
Sentiment / flow
—
Catalyst
—
Narrative
—
Technicals
5/10
No fresh sector catalyst. The position stays while the close holds the 50-day.
Invalidation: Daily close back through the 50-day near 173.35.
TradingView's price for XLV. It is not the last print in this letter.
XLV · 20d illustrative range
XLBMOMENTUM ETFHOLD🔥 19-issue streak
Materials
5/10Conviction
$51.95
▼ -0.73%
Materials are back above the 50-day, so there is no new exit. An older sell ticket is still queued.
Rules sleeve. Fundamentals are not scored.Rules sleeve. Flow is not scored.No fresh sector catalyst beyond the trend Rules sleeve. Narrative is not scored.Back above the 50-day. Held, so not a new
Fundamentals
—
Sentiment / flow
—
Catalyst
—
Narrative
—
Technicals
5/10
No new materials catalyst. The rule says stay while the close holds the 50-day.
Invalidation: Daily close back through the 50-day near 51.33.
TradingView's price for XLB. It is not the last print in this letter.
XLEMOMENTUM ETFEXIT🔥 26-issue streak
Energy
3.5/10Conviction
$61.62
▼ -0.02%
Energy closes under its 50-day. The crude week's air-pocket is the tape, and the exit stands.
Rules sleeve. Fundamentals are not scored.Rules sleeve. Flow is not scored.The weekly crude drop is the sector catalyRules sleeve. Narrative is not scored.Close is 4.49% under the 50-day.
Fundamentals
—
Sentiment / flow
—
Catalyst
4/10
Narrative
—
Technicals
3/10
WTI's weekly drop is the energy tape. Friday's flat settle did not retake the 50-day.
Invalidation: A close back above the 50-day near 64.51.
TradingView's price for XLE. It is not the last print in this letter.
XLKMOMENTUM ETFEXIT🔥 29-issue streak
Technology
3.5/10Conviction
$164.74
▲ +1.45%
Tech's Friday bounce did not retake the 50-day. The exit stands into the CPI print.
Rules sleeve. Fundamentals are not scored.Rules sleeve. Flow is not scored.Friday's bounce did not retake the 50-day.Rules sleeve. Narrative is not scored.Close is 12.33% under the 50-day.
Fundamentals
—
Sentiment / flow
—
Catalyst
4/10
Narrative
—
Technicals
3/10
Friday's chip bounce left XLK 12.3% under its 50-day.
Invalidation: A close back above the 50-day near 187.91.
TradingView's price for XLK. It is not the last print in this letter.
SMHMOMENTUM ETFEXIT🔥 29-issue streak
Semiconductors
3/10Conviction
$463.96
▲ +3.62%
Semiconductors bounced on Friday and are still 18% under the 50-day. The exit stands.
Rules sleeve. Fundamentals are not scored.Rules sleeve. Flow is not scored.The Friday bounce was not a 50-day reclaimRules sleeve. Narrative is not scored.Close is 18.01% under the 50-day.
Fundamentals
—
Sentiment / flow
—
Catalyst
4/10
Narrative
—
Technicals
2/10
Friday's +3.62% did not repair the break of the 50-day.
Invalidation: A close back above the 50-day near 565.88.
TradingView's price for SMH. It is not the last print in this letter.
XBIMOMENTUM ETFEXIT🔥 3-issue streak
Biotech
4/10Conviction
$152.21
▲ +2.57%
Biotech is under its 50-day even with positive 20-day strength versus SPY. The rule exits.
Rules sleeve. Fundamentals are not scored.Rules sleeve. Flow is not scored.No fresh sector catalyst beyond the trend Rules sleeve. Narrative is not scored.Close is 2.68% under the 50-day.
Fundamentals
—
Sentiment / flow
—
Catalyst
—
Narrative
—
Technicals
4/10
No fresh biotech catalyst. The close versus the 50-day is the rule.
Invalidation: A close back above the 50-day near 156.41.
TradingView's price for XBI. It is not the last print in this letter.
Desk research framework — not a recommendation to buy or sell.
Forex
ForexForex Rebalancing Radar 1 minHold a small USD tilt versus EUR into Tuesday. Spot is 1.11439, and Friday's jobs beat is what CPI can take away.
CryptoCryptocurrency Landscape 2 minUS spot bitcoin ETFs shed $411.92m on Nov 6, a second outflow day, and bitcoin is 75762 into Tuesday's CPI. Ether at 2233.27 has no separate flow print clean enough to use.
CRYPTOCURRENCY LANDSCAPE
US spot bitcoin ETFs shed $411.92m on Nov 6, a second outflow day, and bitcoin is 75762 into Tuesday's CPI. Ether at 2233.27 has no separate flow print clean enough to use.
Ticker
Name
Conviction
1d
BTC-USD
Bitcoin
4.3
-0.29%
ETH-USD
Ether
4
-0.47%
BTC-USDWATCH🔥 71-issue streak
Bitcoin
4.3/10Conviction
$75762.00
▼ -0.29%
Into Tuesday's CPI, bitcoin near 75762 has to absorb a second straight ETF outflow day of 411.92 million dollars.
No on-chain supply metric was priced this Nov 6 US spot ETF flow was -$411.92m.Tuesday CPI is the next window after two oThe flow print is the narrative; it is not75762 sits under the 80492 print in this h
Fundamentals
—
Sentiment / flow
3/10
Catalyst
6/10
Narrative
—
Technicals
4/10
Nov 6 US spot ETF net outflow of $411.92m, the second straight session.BLS CPI on 2026-11-10.
Invalidation: A daily close under 70000 before the CPI print.
TradingView's price for BTC-USD. It is not the last print in this letter.
Ether near 2233 follows bitcoin into CPI. No separate flow print was clean enough to score.
No ETH supply or burn series was priced.No single-source ether ETF flow is used.No ETH-specific dated catalyst this weekenNo fresh adoption narrative was verified.2233 is below the 2424 print in this 10-da
Fundamentals
—
Sentiment / flow
—
Catalyst
—
Narrative
—
Technicals
4/10
Tuesday's CPI is the shared macro window. No ETH-specific flow is scored.
Invalidation: A daily close under 2000 before the CPI print.
TradingView's price for ETH-USD. It is not the last print in this letter.
Desk research framework — not a recommendation to buy or sell.
General
GeneralCommodities Outlook 2 minNatural gas led Friday at 2.998, up 1.73%, while WTI at 90.83 is still the diplomacy tape. Neither is a buy before CPI.
COMMODITIES OUTLOOK
Natural gas led Friday at 2.998, up 1.73%, while WTI at 90.83 is still the diplomacy tape. Neither is a buy before CPI.
Gas firm and crude's weekly drop are not one trade. If Monday keeps WTI near 90.83 and gas near 2.998, the inflation leg stays disinflationary even with gold…
Ticker
Name
Conviction
1d
NG=F
Natural gas
6
+1.73%
CL=F
WTI crude
5.8
+0.34%
Natural gasENERGYWATCH
NG=F
6/10Conviction
$3.00
▲ +1.73%
Into Monday's reopen, gas at 2.998 is the energy contract that actually led Friday. A settle back under 2.90 gives the lead back.
No storage or weather balance was priced tNo positioning or flow series was priced fFriday settle 2.998 led the energy contracNo supply narrative beyond the settle was 2.998 is the high of the last three closes
Fundamentals
—
Sentiment / flow
—
Catalyst
6/10
Narrative
—
Technicals
6/10
Friday NYMEX settle 2.998, +1.73%, led the energy contracts (The Edge).
Invalidation: A settle back under 2.90, the prior history bar.
TradingView's price for NG=F. It is not the last print in this letter.
Monday's reopen decides whether 90.83 holds. The week's double-digit drop is the Iran-diplomacy discount, not a Friday bounce.
Week still a double-digit crude drop on diNo crude positioning series was priced thiMonday reopen is the test of the Iran-exitSaxo frames the week as a settlement discoFriday's 90.83 did not repair the weekly a
Fundamentals
6/10
Sentiment / flow
—
Catalyst
7/10
Narrative
6/10
Technicals
4/10
Monday reopen tests the Iran-diplomacy discount that cut crude by a double-digit percent this week.
Invalidation: WTI sustains a close back above 100.
TradingView's price for CL=F. It is not the last print in this letter.
StocksPortfolio Reality Check 5 min30d hit rate 44%
PORTFOLIO REALITY CHECK
P&L Across Portfolios
Tech-US
-3.54%
Named holdings. 140 smaller positions (29.37%) are off this picture.
Tech-US
Performance
Equity vs SPY
Drawdown
Total Value
$96463.83
Cash
$10835.40
P&L
$-3536.17 (-3.54%)
Realized P&L
$-3536.17
TWR
-3.54%
Sharpe
-4.46
Max DD
-3.54%
Sortino
-4.32
Calmar
N/A
Ann. return
N/A
Beta vs SPY
N/A
Allocation
Positions89%
Cash11%
Today's Moves
No new activity today — no open thesis needed adjusting.
Current Holdings
Position
Value
Unrealized P&L
TSM ×20.93
$7858.75
-7.8%
XOM ×129
$21367.69
+8.5%
UNH ×8.49
$3347.36
-7.5%
INTC ×14.08
$792.46
-34.8%
MSFT ×12.33
$6544.38
+29.0%
AMZN ×5.95
$1543.54
-4.0%
CVX ×7.29
$1550.33
+6.9%
FRO ×38.46
$1746.83
+12.3%
+51 more holdings
Track Record
4 On Track · 3 Lagging · 2 Stopped Out
Position
Conviction Then
Return Since
Verdict
CRM (2026-10-13)
6.7/10
-15.2%
Stopped Out
MSFT (2026-10-14)
6.7/10
+29.0%
On Track
UNH (2026-10-15)
7.2/10
-7.5%
Lagging
TSM (2026-10-16)
6.3/10
-7.8%
Lagging
AMZN (2026-10-20)
6.8/10
-4.0%
Lagging
SLB (2026-10-24)
7/10
-16.9%
Stopped Out
LLY (2026-10-30)
7/10
+15.1%
On Track
XOM (2026-10-31)
7/10
+8.5%
On Track
CVX (2026-11-01)
7.7/10
+6.9%
On Track
Euro-only
Performance
Equity vs SPY
Drawdown
Total Value
$97821.52
Cash
$14987.73
P&L
$-2178.48 (-0.22%)
Realized P&L
$-2178.48
Path statistics are hidden. The quotes are estimated, or the time-weighted return disagrees with dollar P&L.
Today's Moves
No new activity today — no open thesis needed adjusting.
Current Holdings
⚠ Every live quote came back estimated, so these marks stay at cost and are left out of the blend.
Position
Value
Unrealized P&L
ASML.AS ×0.4702
$702.62
—
TTE.PA ×368
$27276.04
—
UNA.AS ×48.5
$2832.95
—
RR.L ×101
$1460.08
—
VIE.PA ×48.5
$1430.88
—
GLE.PA ×22.15
$1755.04
—
MNDI.L ×158
$1402.26
—
NWG.L ×191
$1346.17
—
+47 more holdings
Penny Plays
Performance
Equity vs SPY
Drawdown
Total Value
$95417.43
Cash
$81164.16
P&L
$-4582.57 (-4.58%)
Realized P&L
$-4582.57
Path statistics are hidden. The quotes are estimated, or the time-weighted return disagrees with dollar P&L.
Today's Moves
No new activity today — no open thesis needed adjusting.
Current Holdings
⚠ Every live quote came back estimated, so these marks stay at cost and are left out of the blend.
Position
Value
Unrealized P&L
GOSS ×232
$3755.55
—
PYPD ×1564
$6940.50
—
STXS ×2738
$3557.21
—
Anti-Fragile
Performance
Equity vs SPY
Drawdown
Total Value
$100000.00
Cash
$4850.98
P&L
$0.0000 (+0.00%)
Realized P&L
$0.0000
Path statistics are hidden. The quotes are estimated, or the time-weighted return disagrees with dollar P&L.
Today's Moves
Action
Ticker
Qty
Status
Buy
SH
144
pending
Current Holdings
⚠ Every live quote came back estimated, so these marks stay at cost and are left out of the blend.
Position
Value
Unrealized P&L
GLD ×61.65
$25000.00
—
IEF ×164
$15012.91
—
DBC ×654
$20000.00
—
SPLV ×273
$20128.36
—
TLT ×194
$15007.74
—
Trend Follow
Performance
Equity vs SPY
Drawdown
Total Value
$99618.38
Cash
$68979.54
P&L
$-381.62 (-0.38%)
Realized P&L
$-381.62
Path statistics are hidden. The quotes are estimated, or the time-weighted return disagrees with dollar P&L.
Today's Moves
No new activity today — no open thesis needed adjusting.
Current Holdings
⚠ Every live quote came back estimated, so these marks stay at cost and are left out of the blend.
Position
Value
Unrealized P&L
XLE ×87.86
$5539.52
—
XLK ×22.6
$4510.76
—
SMH ×8.53
$5218.24
—
XLV ×30.27
$5207.77
—
XBI ×32
$5207.77
—
XLB ×93.53
$4954.78
—
Commodities
Performance
Equity vs SPY
Drawdown
Total Value
$100000.00
Cash
$26717.65
P&L
$0.0000 (+0.00%)
Realized P&L
$0.0000
Path statistics are hidden. The quotes are estimated, or the time-weighted return disagrees with dollar P&L.
Today's Moves
No new activity today — no open thesis needed adjusting.
Current Holdings
⚠ Every live quote came back estimated, so these marks stay at cost and are left out of the blend.
Position
Value
Unrealized P&L
USO ×206
$26795.83
—
GLD ×30.1
$11738.20
—
CPER ×150
$5929.12
—
SLV ×93.58
$5545.24
—
PPLT ×66.63
$1111.38
—
BNO ×35.14
$1850.57
—
URA ×23.16
$1066.93
—
UGA ×26.78
$3377.87
—
+11 more holdings
Crypto
Performance
Equity vs SPY
Drawdown
Total Value
$100000.00
Cash
$32370.73
P&L
$0.0000 (+0.00%)
Realized P&L
$0.0000
Path statistics are hidden. The quotes are estimated, or the time-weighted return disagrees with dollar P&L.
Today's Moves
No new activity today — no open thesis needed adjusting.
Current Holdings
⚠ Every live quote came back estimated, so these marks stay at cost and are left out of the blend.
Position
Value
Unrealized P&L
BTC-USD ×0.5510
$35015.45
—
ETH-USD ×14.91
$28949.67
—
SOL-USD ×26.81
$2795.91
—
XRP-USD ×628
$868.24
—
30-day hit rate across all portfolios : +44.40%
Glossary
implied volatility
Implied volatility is the option price restated as the move the market is charging for over the life of the contract.
backwardation
A term structure where nearer maturities cost more than later ones, often a stress signal for VIX.
basis point
One hundredth of a percentage point (0.01%).
yield curve
Yields of government bonds across maturities; an inverted curve (short above long) has often preceded slowdowns.
conviction
The desk’s 0-10 score for how strongly the evidence supports an idea; not a probability.
contango
A term structure where later maturities cost more than nearer ones.
drawdown
Peak-to-trough decline of a price or portfolio.
breadth
How many stocks participate in a market move (for example % above their 200-day average).
Sharpe
Excess return per unit of volatility; higher is better.
2s10s
The 10-year yield minus the 2-year yield, a common curve-shape gauge.
beta
Sensitivity of a stock to market moves; 1.0 moves with the market.
VIX
CBOE Volatility Index: the options market’s price for 30-day S&P 500 volatility; higher means more expected turbulence.
RSI
Relative Strength Index: a 0-100 momentum gauge; above 70 is often read as overbought, below 30 as oversold.
P/E
Price-to-earnings ratio: share price divided by earnings per share.
OAS
Option-adjusted spread: the extra yield of a bond over a risk-free benchmark, adjusted for embedded options.
RRG
Relative Rotation Graph: plots relative strength and its momentum to show leaders and laggards.
ATH
All-time high.
TWR
Time-weighted return: performance that removes the effect of cash flows in and out.
Legal & risk disclosures
General research disclaimer: this newsletter is a desk research framework compiled from third-party market data, filings and news. It may contain errors, omissions or delays, and past performance does not predict future results. Figures labelled illustrative (for example fan charts) are model outputs, not forecasts.
Not investment advice: nothing here is a personalised recommendation, an offer or a solicitation to buy or sell any security, currency, commodity or crypto-asset. It does not take into account your objectives, financial situation or risk tolerance. Consider seeking independent professional advice.
Jurisdiction: this content is not directed at any person or entity in a place where its distribution would be unlawful or require registration. Availability of the instruments mentioned varies by country; you are responsible for complying with the rules that apply to you.