market_pulse — Index analytics and breadth still reflect the Nov 5 session (SPX close 7353.73, -4.36%). The price tape and the regime VIX are the Nov 6 close.
market_pulse — Nikkei panel d1 of -7.64% is a multi-session gap, and the Hang Seng panel last (24481.86) disagrees with the price print (24523.43). Both were left off the index band.
market_pulse — WTI history implies +4.33% because the prior bar is the stale 87.06. The cited Friday settle is +0.34% to 90.83, and that is the change on the band.
market_pulse — Gold was left off the band. History change is -1.48% off a 4136.20 prior bar, while web settles disagree on the sign around a 4075 close.
market_pulse — EURUSD history has no Nov 6 bar. The -0.68% change is the cited Friday euro move, against a spot of 1.11474.
market_pulse — GET /movers returned HTTP 400, so yesterday_retrospective has no movers table. The squawk feed returned HTTP 401, so same-day FX alerts fell back to the web.
us_equity_ideas — Screener category=us returned 348 names. None had a buy-qualifying catalyst inside 48 hours. The Nvidia board probe is a fresh overhang, not a buy.
eu_equity_ideas — Screener category=eu returned 31 names. None had a buy-qualifying catalyst inside 48 hours.
penny_plays — Screener unavailable or empty for category=penny — fell back to web search; penny universe may not be seeded yet. No name cleared the bar.
commodities_outlook — Brent's latest aggregator print is 96.58 dated Nov 9; the cited Friday settle is 98.32. Brent was not published as an idea.
trend_follow — QQQ history is only 41 sessions, so the 50-day and 200-day tests were not scored. ITA's Nov 5 close of 68.11 versus 212.84 the day before looks like a bad split and was excluded.
risk_cover_playbook — VIX9D is dated Nov 5 while the VIX tile is Nov 6, so the 1.27 front-ratio mixes two stamps. Put/call, claims and SOFR were not returned and were omitted.
portfolio_reality_check — Euro, Penny, Anti-Fragile, Trend Follow, Commodities and Crypto positions are all price_estimated. Hit rate 44.4% is the 4 of 9 Tech-US open live marks only.
1 of 7 books, weighted by capital invested. Estimated quotes, and books whose path statistics disagree with dollar P&L, are left out. Hit rate is 4 of 9 reviewed picks still on track. Average gain 14.9%, average loss -10.3%.
GeneralMarket Pulse 8 minVIX is 25.64, down 2.54 pts, while the S&P 500 is at 7376.86, up 0.31%. The 10-year is 4.86% and HY OAS is 348 bp, 16 bp wider.
MARKET PULSE
Breadth is still the prior snapshot: 60.09% of members sit above the shorter average and 62.38% sit above the longer one, and equal-weight beat the S&P by 1.52 points.
Mixed tape cautious -1 Book Neutral 1/4 triggered
AIVIX is 25.64, down 2.54 pts, while the S&P 500 is at 7376.86, up 0.31%. The 10-year is 4.86% and HY OAS is 348 bp, 16 bp wider.
Indexes
S&P 500 Data
7,376.86
yday 7,376.86
▲ +0.31%
NASDAQ Data
24,579.43
yday 24,579.43
▲ +1.09%
Nasdaq 100 Data
26,989.99
yday 26,989.99
▲ +1.35%
Dow Jones Data
51,285.73
yday 51,285.73
▼ -0.46%
Russell 2K Data
2,754.11
yday 2,754.11
▲ +0.89%
Euro Stoxx 50 Data
6,170.49
yday 6,170.49
▼ -0.98%
DAX Data
25,820.36
yday 25,820.36
▼ -1.92%
CAC 40 Data
8,139.00
yday 8,139.00
▼ -0.81%
FTSE 100 Data
10,673.90
yday 10,673.90
▼ -1.01%
Nikkei 225 Data
57,434.77
yday 57,434.77
▼ -7.64%
Hang Seng Data
24,481.86
yday 24,481.86
▲ +2.64%
Commodities
Metals
Copper Data
6.32
▲ +1.58%
Energy
Oil (WTI) Data
90.83
yday 90.83
▲ +0.34%
Natural gas Data
3.00
yday 3.00
▲ +3.38%
Crypto
Bitcoin Data
74,240.00
yday 75,762.00
▼ -2.01%
Ether Data
2,118.66
yday 2,233.27
▼ -5.13%
US spot Bitcoin ETFs AI
-411.9 $m
yday -411.9 $m
Outbound
US spot Ether ETFs AI
-93.3 $m
Outbound
Rates
US 2Y Data
4.51
yday 4.51
+5bp
US 10Y Data
4.86
yday 4.86
+2bp
US 30Y Data
5.26
yday 5.26
+1bp
2s10s spread Data
35.00
yday 35.00
-3bp
10Y-3M spread Data
67.00
yday 67.00
unch
Credit
US HY OAS Data
348.00
yday 348.00
+16bp
Baa-10Y spread Data
157.00
yday 157.00
+5bp
IG OAS Data
0.93 percent
yday 93.00 bp
calm
HY minus IG spread Data
255.00 bp
watch
Volatility
VIX Data
25.64
yday 25.64
-2.54 (-9.0%)
VIX9D/VIX Data
1.27 ratio
stress
VIX/VIX3M Data
1.00 ratio
stress
MOVE index Data
92.77 index
calm
Dollar & FX
US Dollar Index (DXY) Data
102.28
yday 102.28
+0.73 (+0.7%)
EUR/USD Data
1.11
yday 1.11
▼ -0.68%
DXY 5-session change Data
0.49 percent
calm
Breadth
% > 50d Data
60.1%
yday 60.1%
—
% > 200d Data
62.4%
yday 62.4%
—
Adv / Dec Data
191 / 238
yday 191 / 238
—
New hi / lo Data
64 / 16
yday 64 / 16
—
SPY−RSP 1d Data
-1.5pp
yday -1.5pp
—
SPY−RSP 5d Data
-4.83pp
yday -4.83pp
—
SPY−RSP 21d Data
-7.82pp
yday -7.82pp
—
% from 52w Data
-6.18%
yday -6.18%
—
Europe % > SMA50 Data
36.7%
yday 36.7%
—
Europe % > SMA200 Data
70.0%
yday 70.0%
—
Europe % advancing Data
38.1%
yday 38.1%
—
Stock-bond 20-session correlation (SPY vs TLT) Data
-0.08 ratio
watch
S&P members above the 200-day Data
62.38 percent
calm
Cross-asset
Average pairwise 20-session sector correlation Data
0.30 ratio
calm
Gold/copper ratio Data
655.30 ratio
yday 655.20 ratio
watch
Cover checks
VIX Data
25.64 / 25.00
yday 25.64
Triggered
10Y-2Y spread Data
0.35 / -0.20
yday 35.00
Not Triggered
HY OAS (bp) Data
348.00 / 500.00
Not Triggered
S&P drawdown from 52-week high (%) Data
-5.87 / -20.00
Not Triggered
Anti-Fragile book (Dalio / Gave) Deflationary bust
AIThe week still looks like a bust: the S&P is 5.87% under its high, oil had its steepest week in years, and copper sold off with the AI complex even though the physical book is tight. Friday's 165k payrolls lifted yields, so bonds are not being bid, but that one print does not mak
• Let the queued crash-hedge fill rather than stacking a second ticket
AIOne hard trigger is on, so the stance stays neutral. The week still reads as a bust: equities and oil fell together, and copper's tight physical book did not stop the metal from trading the AI scare. Two vol internals are stressed, including a thin backwardation, so the crash sleeve stays at 5% and cash at 30%. The Nvidia board probe and Tuesday's CPI are the two events that would change the sleeve, not another tweak today.
Same bands as the 200-day, shown as context. This print does not vote.
Share of issues advancing44.2%
0%100%
A reading aid, not an engine vote. Under 40% is weak participation.
Regime score-1 cautious
−7+4
Sum of the five votes. The scale runs from −7 to +4.
VIX / VIX 3-month1.00 backwardation
0.701.30
Below 1 is the usual contango, which scores 0. Above 1 is backwardation and scores −1.
S&P distance from the 52-week high-6.18%
−15%at the high
A position, not a verdict. The all-time-high distance is the same number, so it is not drawn twice.
SPY minus equal-weight, 1 day-1.52 pp
equal-weight ledSPY led
Right means the cap-weighted index led. Blue is SPY, purple is equal-weight. Neither end is a buy.
New highs minus new lows+48
−40+40
Neither tail is a buy. The tick only says which extreme was larger.
XLV relative strength111.3 leading
90110
XLP relative strength109.8 leading
90110
XLY relative strength106.6 leading
90110
XLU relative strength106.1 leading
90110
XLRE relative strength106.0 leading
90110
XLF relative strength105.4 leading
90110
XLB relative strength105.2 leading
90110
XLE relative strength100.1 weakening
90110
XLC relative strength98.9 lagging
90110
XLI relative strength97.3 improving
90110
XLK relative strength91.4 lagging
90110
Chart.js, from this issue and stored issues. Each axis is labeled on the chart.
Regime engine
cautiousscore -1
The engine label is cautious with a score of -1: vol at 25.64 pts contributes -1 and the term structure is in backwardation, while HY OAS at 348 bp still contributes +1.
Each symbol is compared with the S&P 500, not with its own price. Left to right (RS-ratio) is relative strength: above 100 means it has been stronger than the market. Bottom to top (RS-momentum) is whether that lead is growing: above 100 means it is getting stronger. Leading, top right, is strong and still improving. Weakening, bottom right, is still ahead but fading. Lagging, bottom left, is behind and still losing ground. Improving, top left, is behind but turning up. Leadership usually moves clockwise. The list and the chart are the same symbols.
Quadrant
Symbols
Leading
XLV Health Care, XLP Staples, XLY Discretionary, XLU Utilities, XLRE Real Estate, XLF Financials, XLB Materials
Improving
XLI Industrials
Weakening
XLE Energy
Lagging
XLC Communication, XLK Technology
Relative rotation (RS-ratio vs momentum)
Yield curve: today vs prior
VIX term structure
Event radar · next 7 days
Date
Event
11-10 12:30
● Consumer Price Index US
11-10 12:30
● US CPI US
11-13 12:30
● Producer Price Index US
TradingView
This heatmap is TradingView, with its own data and its mark left in place. It is not the numbers in this letter. The other panels load when you choose them. If a panel is empty, their data-set name changed; the charts above still stand.
Global indices
5/11 above 200d · 1/11 above 50d · 5/11 up today · 2 within 3% of 52w high · best 1m: CAC 40 +3.2% · worst 1m: Nasdaq-100 -13.4%
Index
Last
1d
5d
1m
3m
YTD
vs 52w hi
vs 200d
vs 50d
RS
United States
S&P 500
7,376.86
+0.31%
-2.68%
-4.48%
-1.76%
+7.76%
-5.87%
+1.44%
-3.88%
bench.
Nasdaq-100
26,989.99
+1.35%
-4.91%
-13.38%
-9.19%
+6.89%
-13.56%
-3.49%
-8.94%
Lagging95.1
Nasdaq Composite
24,579.43
+1.09%
-3.37%
-10.75%
-7.91%
+5.75%
-10.94%
-2.01%
-7.13%
Lagging97.0
Dow Jones Industrial
51,285.73
-0.46%
-0.94%
+0.21%
-5.09%
+6.70%
-5.64%
+1.23%
-1.54%
Leading102.0
Russell 2000
2,754.11
+0.89%
-2.05%
-1.40%
-9.24%
+10.97%
-10.24%
-1.90%
-3.11%
Leading100.0
Europe
Euro Stoxx 50
6,170.49
-0.98%
+0.64%
-2.44%
-2.32%
+6.46%
-5.81%
+1.20%
-2.35%
Leading101.4
DAX
25,820.36
-1.92%
+0.01%
+2.72%
+3.92%
+5.43%
-2.34%
+3.72%
+0.01%
Leading104.1
CAC 40
8,139
-0.81%
+2.13%
+3.20%
-2.41%
-0.13%
-6.73%
-0.95%
-0.61%
Leading103.2
FTSE 100
10,673.9
-1.01%
-0.52%
-0.32%
+0.96%
+7.48%
-2.17%
+1.74%
-0.70%
Leading103.0
Asia
Nikkei 225
57,434.77
-7.64%
-8.70%
-12.82%
-11.11%
+14.09%
-20.63%
-6.80%
-12.68%
Lagging91.3
Hang Seng
24,481.86
+2.64%
+3.35%
-0.96%
+3.66%
-4.48%
-12.47%
-3.82%
-1.75%
Leading102.2
daily close, local currency (not FX-adjusted); 52w high uses closes
GeneralYesterday's Market Retrospective 1 minFriday was a jobs-and-chips session: the S&P rose 0.31% to 7376.86 and the Nasdaq rose 1.09%, while the Dow fell 0.46% after payrolls beat by a wide margin.
YESTERDAY'S MARKET RETROSPECTIVE
Friday was a jobs-and-chips session: the S&P rose 0.31% to 7376.86 and the Nasdaq rose 1.09%, while the Dow fell 0.46% after payrolls beat by a wide margin.
Bridge to Today
Tuesday's CPI is the test of whether Friday's payrolls beat becomes a hike, and the Nvidia board probe is the overnight overhang on the chip bounce.
Nasdaq Composite+1.09% today
−3%+3%
US 10Y4.86%
3%6%
Now. The Nasdaq's move on this tape, and the 10-year. Yesterday's close stays in the sentence above.
Stocks
StocksUS Equity Ideas 1 min
US EQUITY IDEAS
Looked. Nothing priced.
Desk research framework — not a recommendation to buy or sell.
StocksEU Equity Ideas 1 min
EU EQUITY IDEAS
Looked. Nothing priced.
Desk research framework — not a recommendation to buy or sell.
StocksPenny Plays 1 min
PENNY PLAYS
Looked. Nothing priced.
Most sub-$5 names that look cheap stay cheap or go to zero. This screen is diligence, not a buy list.
Desk research framework — not a recommendation to buy or sell.
StocksTrend Follow 6 minStaples and financials still clear both moving averages with positive relative strength, so they are the new longs. Health care and materials stay held. Technology, semiconductors, energy a…
TREND FOLLOW
Staples and financials still clear both moving averages with positive relative strength, so they are the new longs. Health care and materials stay held. Technology, semiconductors, energy and biotech remain exits under the 50-day.
7 of 16 names with a usable 50-day close above it. QQQ has only 41 sessions, and ITA's Nov 5 print falls from 212.84 to 68.11, so both are out of the count.
Ticker
Name
Conviction
1d
XLP
Consumer Staples
6.7
-1.28%
XLF
Financials
6
-0.59%
XLV
Health Care
6.7
-0.06%
XLB
Materials
5.7
-0.73%
XLE
Energy
3.3
-0.02%
XLK
Technology
3.3
+1.45%
SMH
Semiconductors
3.3
+3.62%
XBI
Biotech
4
+2.57%
XLPCONSUMER STAPLESBUY🔥 25-issue streak
Consumer Staples
6.7/10Conviction
$90.08
▼ -1.28%
Over the next 2-4 weeks stay with staples while XLP holds the 50-day; the 20-day gap versus SPY is the confirmation.
Rules-based momentum sleeve — factor not sRules-based momentum sleeve — factor not sThe signal is the trend, not a fresh earniStaples leadership fits a cautious regime.Above 50-day and 200-day, with RS vs SPY s
Fundamentals
—
Sentiment / flow
—
Catalyst
6/10
Narrative
6/10
Technicals
8/10
XLP still leads the RRG leading quadrantFriday's tape rewarded the prior winners less than chips, but the trend is intact
Invalidation: Daily close back through the 50-day near 85.51.
TradingView's price for XLP. It is not the last print in this letter.
Over the next 2-4 weeks financials stay a trend long while the 50-day holds; Friday's dip did not break it.
Rules-based momentum sleeve — factor not sRules-based momentum sleeve — factor not sThe signal is the trend, not a fresh earniFinancials lead, but Friday's own print waAbove both averages; 20-day RS vs SPY is p
Fundamentals
—
Sentiment / flow
—
Catalyst
6/10
Narrative
5/10
Technicals
7/10
XLF remains in the leading RRG quadrantThe 50-day is still rising under the price
Invalidation: Daily close back through the 50-day near 56.42.
TradingView's price for XLF. It is not the last print in this letter.
Health care already clears both averages with the widest relative strength in the book, so the held line stays; this is not a fresh add.
Rules-based momentum sleeve — factor not sRules-based momentum sleeve — factor not sThe signal is the trend, not a fresh earniDefensive leadership fits a cautious regimAbove 50-day and 200-day, widest RS in the
Fundamentals
—
Sentiment / flow
—
Catalyst
6/10
Narrative
6/10
Technicals
8/10
XLV is the top leading RRG sectorThe position is already on the book
Invalidation: Daily close back through the 50-day near 173.35.
TradingView's price for XLV. It is not the last print in this letter.
Materials are back above a rising 50-day, so the held line stays, but the cushion is thin and this is not a new add.
Rules-based momentum sleeve — factor not sRules-based momentum sleeve — factor not sThe signal is the trend, not a fresh earniA thin reclaim, not a fresh materials storBarely above the 50-day; the 200-day is un
Fundamentals
—
Sentiment / flow
—
Catalyst
6/10
Narrative
5/10
Technicals
6/10
XLB reclaimed the 50-dayRelative strength versus SPY is positive over 20 sessions
Invalidation: Daily close back through the 50-day near 51.33.
TradingView's price for XLB. It is not the last print in this letter.
Energy is an exit while the close is under the 50-day; the oil weekly crash is the tape, not a reason to override the rule.
Rules-based momentum sleeve — factor not sRules-based momentum sleeve — factor not sThe 50-day break is the catalyst; news doeEnergy leadership broke with the oil weekl61.62 is below the 50-day at 64.51.
Fundamentals
—
Sentiment / flow
—
Catalyst
4/10
Narrative
3/10
Technicals
3/10
XLE closed under its 50-dayWTI's weekly drop is already in the energy sleeve
Invalidation: The exit stands until a close back above 64.51.
TradingView's price for XLE. It is not the last print in this letter.
Technology stays an exit until XLK reclaims the 50-day. Friday's bounce did not repair a 20-day relative-strength deficit.
Rules-based momentum sleeve — factor not sRules-based momentum sleeve — factor not sThe 50-day break is the catalyst; news doeThe AI unwind is still the tape this sleev164.74 is well under the 50-day at 187.91.
Fundamentals
—
Sentiment / flow
—
Catalyst
4/10
Narrative
3/10
Technicals
3/10
Friday's chip bounce left XLK under the 50-dayXLK is in the lagging RRG quadrant
Invalidation: The exit stands until a close back above 187.91.
TradingView's price for XLK. It is not the last print in this letter.
Semiconductors stay an exit. The Friday bounce was real and it still left SMH far under a falling 50-day.
Rules-based momentum sleeve — factor not sRules-based momentum sleeve — factor not sThe 50-day break is the catalyst; news doeThe chip break is the position, not a one-463.96 versus a 50-day at 565.88.
Fundamentals
—
Sentiment / flow
—
Catalyst
4/10
Narrative
3/10
Technicals
3/10
SMH rallied 3.62% Friday and remains under the 50-dayThe sleeve is already queued for sale
Invalidation: The exit stands until a close back above 565.88.
TradingView's price for SMH. It is not the last print in this letter.
Biotech is an exit on the rule: the close is back under the 50-day, so the held line comes off even after Friday's bounce.
Rules-based momentum sleeve — factor not sRules-based momentum sleeve — factor not sThe 50-day break is the catalyst; news doeA failed reclaim, not a new biotech bid.152.21 is back under the 50-day at 156.41.
Fundamentals
—
Sentiment / flow
—
Catalyst
4/10
Narrative
4/10
Technicals
4/10
XBI closed under the 50-dayA 2.57% Friday bounce did not repair the break
Invalidation: The exit stands until a close back above 156.41.
TradingView's price for XBI. It is not the last print in this letter.
CryptoCryptocurrency Landscape 2 minUS spot bitcoin ETFs lost $411.9m on Nov 6 and ether funds lost $93.3m, and both coins are under their 50-day averages. The next gate is Tuesday's CPI, not a new protocol event.
CRYPTOCURRENCY LANDSCAPE
US spot bitcoin ETFs lost $411.9m on Nov 6 and ether funds lost $93.3m, and both coins are under their 50-day averages. The next gate is Tuesday's CPI, not a new protocol event.
Ticker
Name
Conviction
1d
BTC-USD
Bitcoin
3.8
-2.01%
ETH-USD
Ether
3.2
-5.13%
BTC-USDWATCH🔥 72-issue streak
Bitcoin
3.8/10Conviction
$74240.00
▼ -2.01%
Into Tuesday's CPI, bitcoin is a watch: ETF outflows and a break under the 50-day say the bounce needs a macro bid first.
No issuer cash flow; spot supply is not scUS spot bitcoin ETFs lost $411.9m on Nov 6Next gate is Tuesday CPI, not a network evThe outflow week is the story, not a new b74240 is under the 50-day and above the 20
Fundamentals
—
Sentiment / flow
3/10
Catalyst
4/10
Narrative
4/10
Technicals
4/10
US spot bitcoin ETFs -$411.9m on Nov 6IBIT -$403m of that outflowCPI on 2026-11-10
Invalidation: A weekly close under the 200-day near 72429.
TradingView's price for BTC-USD. It is not the last print in this letter.
Ether has the same CPI gate as bitcoin and a worse tape: it is under its 50-day and the ether ETFs are still leaking.
No issuer cash flow; spot supply is not scUS spot ether ETFs lost $93.3m on Nov 6.No upgrade; CPI is the shared macro gate.Ether is lagging bitcoin on the same outfl2118 is under the 50-day; 200-day history
Fundamentals
—
Sentiment / flow
3/10
Catalyst
4/10
Narrative
3/10
Technicals
3/10
US spot ether ETFs -$93.3m on Nov 6ETHA led the day's withdrawalsCPI on 2026-11-10
Invalidation: No reclaim of the 50-day near 2473.
TradingView's price for ETH-USD. It is not the last print in this letter.
Desk research framework — not a recommendation to buy or sell.
General
GeneralCommodities Outlook 2 minGas is the fresh watch after the IEA's winter LNG warning, while copper's physical tightness is still fighting an AI-led price break. Neither is a buy until price confirms the story.
COMMODITIES OUTLOOK
Gas is the fresh watch after the IEA's winter LNG warning, while copper's physical tightness is still fighting an AI-led price break. Neither is a buy until price confirms the story.
There is no single cross-commodity theme. The dollar was firmer on Friday, with DXY at 102.28, up 0.73, which usually leans against gold and copper together,…
Ticker
Name
Conviction
1d
NG=F
Natural gas
6
+3.38%
HG=F
Copper
6
+1.58%
Natural gasENERGYWATCH🔥 2-issue streak
NG=F
6/10Conviction
$3.00
▲ +3.38%
Into winter, the IEA LNG shortfall is a reason to watch gas, not to buy it, until 2.998 holds above the 2.90 50-day after CPI.
IEA sees Gulf LNG supply still short into No positioning or ETF-flow series in the iIEA Nov 8 note: Gulf LNG loadings down 60 Winter bid is live, but US gas is not scar2.998 sits just above a 2.90 50-day.
Fundamentals
6/10
Sentiment / flow
—
Catalyst
7/10
Narrative
5/10
Technicals
6/10
IEA: Gulf LNG loadings down 60 bcm from March to OctoberFurther 10-25 bcm winter risk if Hormuz shipments recover slowly
Invalidation: A daily close under the 2.90 50-day.
TradingView's price for NG=F. It is not the last print in this letter.
Over the next week, copper is a buy only if it reclaims the 50-day near 6.58; the physical book is tight, but the price still trades the AI scare.
SHFE stocks at a 3-year low; Yangshan at aNo COT or copper-ETF flow in the inputs.Codelco and Lundin cuts landed with FridayAI-rout selling is fighting a tight physic6.316 is still under the 50-day at 6.58.
Fundamentals
7/10
Sentiment / flow
—
Catalyst
7/10
Narrative
6/10
Technicals
4/10
LME copper fell Friday and is on its worst week since MarchSHFE stocks down 24% on the week to 33,848 tonsCodelco overstatement and Lundin Caserones cut
Invalidation: A COMEX close back under 6.22.
TradingView's price for HG=F. It is not the last print in this letter.
StocksPortfolio Reality Check 5 min30d hit rate 44%
PORTFOLIO REALITY CHECK
P&L Across Portfolios
Tech-US
-3.54%
Named holdings. 140 smaller positions (29.37%) are off this picture.
Tech-US
Performance
Equity vs SPY
Drawdown
Total Value
$96463.83
Cash
$10835.40
P&L
$-3536.17 (-3.54%)
Realized P&L
$-3536.17
TWR
-3.54%
Sharpe
-4.46
Max DD
-3.54%
Sortino
-4.32
Calmar
N/A
Ann. return
N/A
Beta vs SPY
N/A
Allocation
Positions89%
Cash11%
Today's Moves
Action
Ticker
Qty
Status
Sell
INTC
14.08
pending
Sell
PLTR
5.87
pending
Sell
CSCO
21.7
pending
Sell
RDDT
12.88
pending
Sell
AVGO
1.49
pending
Sell
OI
66.09
pending
Sell
ESTC
4.27
pending
Sell
GAP
18.28
pending
Sell
HAL
53.7
pending
Sell
HOOD
2.24
pending
Sell
ADBE
1.02
pending
Sell
ORCL
1.54
pending
Current Holdings
Position
Value
Unrealized P&L
TSM ×20.93
$7858.75
-7.8%
XOM ×129
$21367.69
+8.5%
UNH ×8.49
$3347.36
-7.5%
INTC ×14.08
$792.46
-34.8%
MSFT ×12.33
$6544.38
+29.0%
AMZN ×5.95
$1543.54
-4.0%
CVX ×7.29
$1550.33
+6.9%
FRO ×38.46
$1746.83
+12.3%
+51 more holdings
Track Record
4 On Track · 3 Lagging · 2 Stopped Out
Position
Conviction Then
Return Since
Verdict
CRM (2026-10-13)
6.7/10
-15.2%
Stopped Out
MSFT (2026-10-29)
7.3/10
+29.0%
On Track
UNH (2026-10-15)
7.2/10
-7.5%
Lagging
TSM (2026-10-16)
6.3/10
-7.8%
Lagging
AMZN (2026-10-20)
6.8/10
-4.0%
Lagging
SLB (2026-10-24)
7/10
-16.9%
Stopped Out
LLY (2026-10-30)
7/10
+15.1%
On Track
XOM (2026-10-31)
7/10
+8.5%
On Track
CVX (2026-11-01)
7.7/10
+6.9%
On Track
Euro-only
Performance
Equity vs SPY
Drawdown
Total Value
$97821.52
Cash
$14987.73
P&L
$-2178.48 (-0.22%)
Realized P&L
$-2178.48
Path statistics are hidden. The quotes are estimated, or the time-weighted return disagrees with dollar P&L.
Today's Moves
No new activity today — no open thesis needed adjusting.
Current Holdings
⚠ Every position below is marked at cost because the live quote was unavailable.
Position
Value
Unrealized P&L
ASML.AS ×0.4702
$702.62
—
TTE.PA ×368
$27276.04
—
UNA.AS ×48.5
$2832.95
—
RR.L ×101
$1460.08
—
VIE.PA ×48.5
$1430.88
—
GLE.PA ×22.15
$1755.04
—
MNDI.L ×158
$1402.26
—
NWG.L ×191
$1346.17
—
+47 more holdings
Penny Plays
Performance
Equity vs SPY
Drawdown
Total Value
$95417.43
Cash
$81164.16
P&L
$-4582.57 (-4.58%)
Realized P&L
$-4582.57
Path statistics are hidden. The quotes are estimated, or the time-weighted return disagrees with dollar P&L.
Today's Moves
No new activity today — no open thesis needed adjusting.
Current Holdings
⚠ Every position below is marked at cost because the live quote was unavailable.
Position
Value
Unrealized P&L
GOSS ×232
$3755.55
—
PYPD ×1564
$6940.50
—
STXS ×2738
$3557.21
—
Anti-Fragile
Performance
Equity vs SPY
Drawdown
Total Value
$100000.00
Cash
$4850.98
P&L
$0.0000 (+0.00%)
Realized P&L
$0.0000
Path statistics are hidden. The quotes are estimated, or the time-weighted return disagrees with dollar P&L.
Today's Moves
No new activity today — no open thesis needed adjusting.
Current Holdings
⚠ Every position below is marked at cost because the live quote was unavailable.
Position
Value
Unrealized P&L
GLD ×61.65
$25000.00
—
IEF ×164
$15012.91
—
DBC ×654
$20000.00
—
SPLV ×273
$20128.36
—
TLT ×194
$15007.74
—
Trend Follow
Performance
Equity vs SPY
Drawdown
Total Value
$99618.38
Cash
$68979.54
P&L
$-381.62 (-0.38%)
Realized P&L
$-381.62
Path statistics are hidden. The quotes are estimated, or the time-weighted return disagrees with dollar P&L.
Today's Moves
No new activity today — no open thesis needed adjusting.
Current Holdings
⚠ Every position below is marked at cost because the live quote was unavailable.
Position
Value
Unrealized P&L
XLE ×87.86
$5539.52
—
XLK ×22.6
$4510.76
—
SMH ×8.53
$5218.24
—
XLV ×30.27
$5207.77
—
XBI ×32
$5207.77
—
XLB ×93.53
$4954.78
—
Commodities
Performance
Equity vs SPY
Drawdown
Total Value
$100000.00
Cash
$26717.65
P&L
$0.0000 (+0.00%)
Realized P&L
$0.0000
Path statistics are hidden. The quotes are estimated, or the time-weighted return disagrees with dollar P&L.
Today's Moves
No new activity today — no open thesis needed adjusting.
Current Holdings
⚠ Every position below is marked at cost because the live quote was unavailable.
Position
Value
Unrealized P&L
USO ×206
$26795.83
—
GLD ×30.1
$11738.20
—
CPER ×150
$5929.12
—
SLV ×93.58
$5545.24
—
PPLT ×66.63
$1111.38
—
BNO ×35.14
$1850.57
—
URA ×23.16
$1066.93
—
UGA ×26.78
$3377.87
—
+11 more holdings
Crypto
Performance
Equity vs SPY
Drawdown
Total Value
$100000.00
Cash
$32370.73
P&L
$0.0000 (+0.00%)
Realized P&L
$0.0000
Path statistics are hidden. The quotes are estimated, or the time-weighted return disagrees with dollar P&L.
Today's Moves
No new activity today — no open thesis needed adjusting.
Current Holdings
⚠ Every position below is marked at cost because the live quote was unavailable.
Position
Value
Unrealized P&L
BTC-USD ×0.5510
$35015.45
—
ETH-USD ×14.91
$28949.67
—
SOL-USD ×26.81
$2795.91
—
XRP-USD ×628
$868.24
—
30-day hit rate across all portfolios : +44.40%
Glossary
VIX term structure
The VIX term structure lines up the cost of S&P 500 insurance across horizons, usually 9 days, 1 month, 3 months and 6 months.
backwardation
A term structure where nearer maturities cost more than later ones, often a stress signal for VIX.
basis point
One hundredth of a percentage point (0.01%).
yield curve
Yields of government bonds across maturities; an inverted curve (short above long) has often preceded slowdowns.
conviction
The desk’s 0-10 score for how strongly the evidence supports an idea; not a probability.
contango
A term structure where later maturities cost more than nearer ones.
drawdown
Peak-to-trough decline of a price or portfolio.
breadth
How many stocks participate in a market move (for example % above their 200-day average).
Sharpe
Excess return per unit of volatility; higher is better.
2s10s
The 10-year yield minus the 2-year yield, a common curve-shape gauge.
beta
Sensitivity of a stock to market moves; 1.0 moves with the market.
VIX
CBOE Volatility Index: the options market’s price for 30-day S&P 500 volatility; higher means more expected turbulence.
RSI
Relative Strength Index: a 0-100 momentum gauge; above 70 is often read as overbought, below 30 as oversold.
P/E
Price-to-earnings ratio: share price divided by earnings per share.
OAS
Option-adjusted spread: the extra yield of a bond over a risk-free benchmark, adjusted for embedded options.
RRG
Relative Rotation Graph: plots relative strength and its momentum to show leaders and laggards.
ATH
All-time high.
TWR
Time-weighted return: performance that removes the effect of cash flows in and out.
Legal & risk disclosures
General research disclaimer: this newsletter is a desk research framework compiled from third-party market data, filings and news. It may contain errors, omissions or delays, and past performance does not predict future results. Figures labelled illustrative (for example fan charts) are model outputs, not forecasts.
Not investment advice: nothing here is a personalised recommendation, an offer or a solicitation to buy or sell any security, currency, commodity or crypto-asset. It does not take into account your objectives, financial situation or risk tolerance. Consider seeking independent professional advice.
Jurisdiction: this content is not directed at any person or entity in a place where its distribution would be unlawful or require registration. Availability of the instruments mentioned varies by country; you are responsible for complying with the rules that apply to you.